Five charts that summarise UN’s population report

India will become the most populous country in the world next year, overtaking China, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in its 2022 World Population Prospects (WPP) report released on Monday.

India will become the most populous country in the world next year, overtaking China, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in its 2022 World Population Prospects (WPP) report released on Monday.

(ANI)

The difference between the current population of the two countries is only 8.7 million, it added. That India’s population would overtake China’s was always known -- although the report’s data assigns a sense of immediacy to this event. Among other interesting findings of the report is the fact that almost half the increase in the world’s population till 2050 will come from eight countries, including five in Africa. Here are five charts which summarise the findings of the latest WPP report.

India will overtake China as the most populous country in 2023

WPP estimates that India’s population as on July 1 is 1.4 billion, only 8.7 million less than the population of China. Its population projections suggest that India will overtake China as the most populous country in the world in 2023 and is likely to retain the top spot on this count till 2100, when its population will be xxxxxxx. In fact, China’s population started decreasing from 2021 onwards. India’s population, as per WPP projections, is expected to reach its peak in 2063 at 1.7 billion. To be sure, India’s share in total world population has come down marginally to 17.79% in 2022, after peaking 17.84% in 2017, and it will l come down further to 14.8% in 2100.

See Chart 1: India, China population

World population is growing, but at a slow pace.

Global population is estimated to be at 8 billion, as of July 1, and is expected to rise to 8.5 billion and 9.7 billion in 2030 and 2050 respectively. World population will grow further and peak at 10.4 billion in 2080s and remain at the same level till 2100. However, the pace of the increase in global population has been declining since 2012. It fell to 0.84% in 2022 from 1.22% in 2012. This figure fell below 1% in 2020 (at 0.92) itself for the first time since 1950.

See Chart 2: World population and growth rate

This rise in global population is in line with the increasing years of life expectancy at birth till 2050. This figure is expected to rise to 77.2 years, up from 71.7 years in 2022. The report also says that almost two-thirds of the increase in global population till 2050 will be driven by past growth momentum or the young age-structure of the population. Therefore, any national effort to reduce the fertility cannot lead to a reversal in trend, it added.

Which countries will drive the rise?

More than half the increase in global population up to 2050 will be driven by eight countries, Democratic Republic of Congo, Pakistan, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Philippines and Tanzania. This is reflected in the shift in the rankings of the world’s 10 most populous countries in 2022 vs 2050. India will be the most populated nation in the world in 2050. The US will remain in the third position with the total population of about 375 million in 2050.

See Chart 3: World’s ten most populous countries in 2022 vs 2050

Are the drivers of growth similar ?

The drivers of population growth vary across countries with different income levels. In the case of low income countries, population growth will be driven by excess births over deaths. This is despite the fact that these countries will witness a fall in the number of excess births per 1000 live births from 18.7 in 2022 to 11.5 in 2050.

In the case of high income countries, deaths will exceed births, which suggests that the only tailwind to population will be the net inflow of migrants.

See Chart 4: Excess birth rates by income groups

How did the pandemic affect world population?

The COVID-19 pandemic could have impacted the dynamics of global population in three ways: a fall in global life expectancy at birth, rise in fertility rates or unintended pregnancies, and a fall in the numbers of migrants moving abroad. The report found conclusive evidence of only one though -- the fall in global life expectancy at birth to 71 years in 2022, from 72.8 in 2019.

This fall in life expectancy at birth is seen across all regions, except West and Central Africa. Eastern Europe and Central Africa saw the highest fall in life expectancy at birth by 2.6% from 74.6 years in 2019 to xx in 2022. East and Southern Asia saw the next highest decrease by 1.8% from 63.1 years in 2019 to xx in 2022.

See Chart 5: Region-wise trend in global life expectancy at birth till 2022