Haryana polls: Why Cong failed to strike despite anti-incumbency
The BJP was leading in 47 seats in Haryana as compared to 36 seats for the Congress, as of 11am. However, the Congress had a higher vote share of 40.57%, as compared to about 38.80% for the BJP
The Congress appears to have far underperformed expectations and predictions in the Haryana assembly elections, according to early trends.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was leading in 47 seats in the 90-member Haryana assembly as compared to 36 seats for the Congress, as of 11am. However, the Congress had a higher vote share of 40.57%, as compared to about 38.80% for the BJP. The majority mark in the state is 46 seats.
Early trends showed that the Haryana contest is far closer than anticipated, with 25% of the votes in the states counted.
The Congress, it seems, was far too dependent on former chief minister and senior leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda, an overreliance that has not paid off. The Congress believed Jat, Dalit and Muslim votes together would ensure its victory in the state.
But, the BJP appeared to have better consolidated its vote among non-Jat and non-Muslim votes. Further, the party’s plan to consolidate non-Jat other backward classes (OBC) votes appeared to work for it.
The BJP appears to have retained its stronghold in the non-Jat areas of eastern and southern Haryana. It has done remarkably well in Jat-dominated western Haryana, where non-Jat votes appeared to have coalesced for the BJP in large numbers.
Despite perceived anti-incumbency against the BJP, the Congress has not been able to check infighting between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja, tensions that also appear to have blunted the party’s prospects. On the ground, the Congress did not contest the polls as unitedly as the BJP did, with several rebels contesting as independents.
Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s possible return as chief minister, though the party did not announce his name for the position, also went against the party.
Among the non-Jat votes in Haryana, Hooda government between 2004 and 2014 was perceived as corrupt and performed poorly on governance metrics. During his regime, law and order in the state was said to have devolved as well.
The BJP has performed better on these fronts in its decade in power, said a political analyst who asked not to be named.
“There was no major corruption charge against any BJP leader in these 10 years,” said a political analyst.
If the trends hold in Haryana, the BJP’s decision to replace sitting chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, this March appears to have worked. In the same vein, in Uttarakhand in 2022, the BJP brought in Pushkar Singh Dhami six months before polls whereas the Congress banked on its old guard Harish Rawat, a move that helped the former buck anti-incumbency.
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