Haryana redux: Will rebels again be party poopers in Maharashtra and Jharkhand?
The number of independent and rebel candidates for assembly elections have doubled up in 5 years, putting contests on a knife’s edge, making them unpredictable.
In the recently concluded Haryana assembly elections, pollsters and party strategists appear to have overlooked one crucial factor—the presence of rebels and independents in the fray, which seemed insignificant in the heat of the campaign but came back to bite the Congress.
In 14 constituencies, the BJP defeated the Congress by a margin lower than the votes secured by the second runner-up. In 10 of them, Independents were the second runners-up.
In the final reckoning, the difference between the winner and the runner-up was 11 seats—the BJP’s 48 to Congress's 37 - with a less than one percentage popular vote that divided the two parties.
In other words, the party poopers—rebels and independents—are probably playing a more significant role than they have until now. They may not win their own seat but get enough votes to tilt the balance.
Will Haryana repeat?
The question is whether the story is going to repeat itself in a far more crucial Maharashtra assembly going to polls this month: Already, the signs are ominous. Between 2019 and 2024, the number of candidate nomination forms received has doubled – from 5,543 to 10,905, as per the state Election Commission.
Maharashtra’s deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP acknowledged as much. “Our efforts will be to persuade the rebels to withdraw,” he told reporters.
That could be easier said than done. A coordination committee set up between the BJP, Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, which constitute the ruling Mahayuti alliance, failed to reach a consensus.
The BJP has a whopping 19 rebel candidates; while both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) are up against it, political sources put the number of rebels and independents on both sides at 50 to 100, which could have significant bearing on an assembly strength of 288.
Sanjay Kumar, professor and co-director of Lokniti at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), attributes the high number of rebels in Maharashtra to the two big alliances. ``When three major political parties each have set up two rival alliances, it is not possible to accommodate everyone. Naturally then, there are more rebels in the state,’’ he says. According to him, when the political cake becomes smaller and there are more claimants, some who are overlooked for the party ticket, will look elsewhere.
Kumar also does not agree that Congress was beaten in Haryana only because of the rebels. "Both the BJP and Congress had rebels in Haryana, but both parties got a whopping number of votes as well. So, it is a question of which party can manage their rebels the best, including persuading some to withdraw at the last moment,” he told this reporter.
But even in smaller Jharkhand, independent rebels are posing formidable challenges for both the BJP and the ruling JMM. Anticipating division of votes, leaders of both the parties are trying to woo the dissidents who have been on the warpath. Both, the BJP and the JMM -led formation, which includes the Congress, RJD and new entrant CPI-ML, want their rebels to either withdraw their nominations as Independents or pledge support for their respective parties' official candidates.
BJP Jharkhand in-charge and Union minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, along with co-in-charge and Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, are approaching the party candidates and rebels individually – including spirited dashes - to different parts of the state persuading them to withdraw their nominations as Independents.
One party strategist told this reporter that such rebels pose a `significant threat’ to the BJP's poll prospects in the state, where they are seemingly well placed to take on the JMM combine.
Same story in Jharkhand
The JMM has repeated at least 26 sitting MLAs, but they are also facing dissidents’ ire, particularly those who were not given tickets to accommodate the BJP turncoats.
The most telling is the case of JMM MLA Dinesh William Marandi, who was denied a party ticket and has threatened to contest against the party's official nominee in the Litipara seat. Citing the case of his father Simon Marandi, one of the founders of the JMM, he has openly criticised the CM and party working president, Hemant Soren.
“Hemant Soren's family has been allotted three tickets, while not a single ticket was given to my family, which has an equal contribution in forming the party and strengthening it,” he told party workers.
Clearly, electoral battles are getting tougher and when independents become a deciding factor, the dice can roll anywhere.