How accurate were 2018 exit polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram?
2023 exit polls results today: Here's a look at how exit poll agencies performed as far as accuracy is concerned.
New Delhi: The exit poll results for Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Mizoram and Rajasthan assembly elections will be released today. Exit polls are notorious for being inaccurate. However, on some occasions, they predict unlikely results accurately. Here's a look at how exit poll agencies performed in 2018 as far as accuracy is concerned.
In 2018, the Congress won 114 seats, the BJP won 109 seats and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won 2 seats. The Congress was the single largest party even though its vote share was lesser than the BJP. The exit poll agencies were correct in predicting a tough fight between the two parties.
CNX-Times Now had predicted 126 seats for BJP, 89 for the Congress. News24-Pace Media gave 103 seats to the BJP, 115 to the Congress. CSDS-ABP News predicted 94 seats for the BJP and 126 seats for the Congress. Axis My India and India Today predicted a neck and neck fight giving 111 seats to the BJP and 113 seats to the Congress. India News- NETA gave 106 seats to the BJP and 112 to the Congress. The overall consensus was, however, that the BJP would become the single largest party.
In 2018, the poll pundits predicted a win for the Congress.
CSDS – ABP News gave 52 seats to the BJP and 35 seats to the Congress. C Voter-Republic TV predicted a Congress victory with 45 seats and gave 39 seats to the BJP. News 24-Pace Media gave 39 seats to the BJP and 48 seats to the Congress. Axis My India – India Today gave 60 seats to the Congress and 26 to the BJP. News X- NETA predicted a neck and neck fight, giving 42 seats to the BJP and 41 seats to the Congress. Today's Chanakya predicted 36 seats for the BJP and 50 seats for the Congress. The general consensus was that the Congress would edge out the BJP.
In the end, the Congress ended up winning 68 seats, reducing the BJP to just 15 seats.
In 2018, exit polls predicted a clear victory for the Indian National Congress, CVoter - Republic TV predicted 60 seats for the BJP and 137 to the Congress; CNX - Times Now gave 85 seats to the BJP and 105 to the Congress; India TV gave between 80-90 seats to the BJP and 100-110 seats to the Congress; CSDS - ABP gave 83 to the BJP and 101 to the Congress; Axis My India - India Today gave between 55-72 seats to the BJP and 119-141 seats to the Congress. Republic-Jan Ki Baat gave 93 seats to the BJP and 91 to the Congress.
Eventually, the Congress won the with 100 seats. The BJP won 73 seats.
In Mizoram, exit polls predicted a tough fight between the MNF and Congress. CVoter - Republic TV said the Congress would win the polls with 16-20 seats, with MNF winning 14-18 seats. CNX-Times said the Congress was winning 18 seats as against the BJP's 16 seats.
Eventually, the MNF won 26 seats, the Congress 5 and ZPM 8 seats.
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