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How US midterms shape the 2024 presidential vote

By, Washington
Nov 10, 2022 02:13 PM IST

A resounding defeat for the Democrats would have inevitably led to a chorus of calls for Joe Biden to announce that he would not stand in the 2024 elections, when he will be 82. That has not happened, and Biden has earned a breather, but the debate within the party will continue.

The American midterm elections have set the platform for the next big stage in the political cycle — the big presidential race for 2024.

Supporters of Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis at an election night watch party in Tampa on Monday (AFP) PREMIUM
Supporters of Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis at an election night watch party in Tampa on Monday (AFP)

If the battle within the Republicans is set to sharpen between former president Donald Trump, who is set to announce his candidacy this month, and Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who swept his state on Tuesday, the debate within Democrats on Joe Biden’s viability as a candidate and the search for alternatives is set to continue.

But first a caveat. At the time of writing, the final contours of the outcome are not clear. The Republicans are expected to take the House but only by a narrow majority, the Senate race is too close to call, and incumbent governors on both sides have returned to offices. But what is clear is that both parties are now heading for an internal churn.

Emergence of DeSantis and battle with Trump

On the Republican side, the star of the midterms is undoubtedly Ron DeSantis. Winning close to 60% of the vote, building a multiracial coalition with substantial support of Hispanics, and sweeping even pockets of the state that have traditionally been Democratic, the Florida governor has become a key figure to watch out for as Republicans narrow down on their candidate for 2024.

Of Italian-American heritage, DeSantis is a Yale and Harvard graduate who served in the United States Navy and served in Iraq. A former member of the US House of Representatives, DeSantis was a loyal Trump supporter during his presidency. In return, Trump backed DeSantis for Florida governor’s race in 2018, which the latter won with a narrow margin.

But over the past two years, since Trump’s defeat, DeSantis has increasingly come into his own as a key Republican leader with presidential ambitions of his own, much to the annoyance of his Florida neighbour, Trump, who lives in his Mar-a-Lago residence in the state. Last week, Trump dismissed the governor, calling him Ron DeSanctimonious, and threatened to release unflattering information about him.

DeSantis has carved out his own space, within the larger Trumpist worldview — in an effort to secure Trump’s base, but without his baggage.

This is clear with regard to policy positions. DeSantis is as extreme-Right as they come. On education, he passed a slew of legislations prohibiting the teaching of critical race theory and pedagogy around sexuality — and frequently attacks “wokes”, music to the ears of his base. DeSantis opposes abortion and gun-control measures; his position on the economy aligns with the Republican worldview in favour of tax cuts and reduced welfare spending; he positions himself firmly in favour of law enforcement; and he opposes immigration, recently sending two plane loads of migrants to Martha’s Vineyard in an act of political theatre aimed at exposing what Republicans call “liberal hypocrisy” on the issue. The governor’s position on lifting pandemic-related restrictions and opening up his state that made him a national Republican force to reckon with, at a time when the Republican base saw health-related restrictions as an intrusion into personal freedoms.

All of this makes him appealing to the Republicans who are seeking a more disciplined alternative to Trump, but believe in the same world view.

For Trump, the midterms have undoubtedly been a setback. He expected to take credit for a Republican tsunami but that hasn’t happened. Trump’s most favoured candidates, who pandered to his rejection of the 2020 elections, have lost elections in states as varied as Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Michigan, among others. And many in the Republican establishment, who were anyway uncomfortable with Trump, blame him for alienating moderates and suburban voters, a factor that had played out in 2020 as well. The fact that Trump faces a range of legal challenges on issues ranging from his role in the mob attack on the US Capitol on January 6 to possibly stealing national secrets to his business dealings in New York also dents his prospects.

This does not mean that the former president will fade away quietly or is the past. The one lesson of the past six years is not to underestimate Trump or the loyalty he still commands among Republican bases. A majority of Republican voters believe that the 2020 election was “stolen”, a lie that Trump assiduously spread — more than 200 election deniers won in midterm races at different levels. He still has the ability to raise money. And while Trump is not best positioned to win a national election, he may still retain enough loyalty within the Republican base in the primaries to emerge as the candidate, especially if there are many other candidates in the fray besides DeSantis and the anti-Trump vote fragments.

Democratic dilemma persists

A resounding defeat for the Democrats would have inevitably led to a chorus of calls for Joe Biden to announce that he would not stand in the 2024 elections, when he will be 82. That has not happened, and Biden has earned a breather, but the debate within the party will continue.

For those who are in Biden’s corner, the results are proof that the President’s ability to deploy his native grandfatherly charm and connect with voters is intact; that voters have not fully rejected his governance record and may in fact have rewarded his ability to pass through legislations and shepherd the administration in a difficult climate; and that Biden, as the only Democrat who has a proven record of beating Trump, remains best positioned to beat the extreme-Right with his centrist politics.

But there are also those, within the Democratic base, who argue that the better-than-expected midterm results for Democrats are not because of Biden but despite him. The party went into elections with low approval ratings for the President and a tough economic outlook — a CNN exit poll showed 54% disapproved of Biden, while 45% backed him, and almost 78% said they were going through severe or moderate economic hardship. Biden’s ability to rally the young remains in doubt. And his age and occasional rhetorical gaffes, especially against a possible DeSantis candidacy, will be a deterrent for swing voters. The fact that Biden is likely to face a hostile House, which will open a range of investigations against him in the next year, may also weaken his prospects.

The challenge for Democrats is that there is no easy alternative. In party circles, Vice President Kamala Harris is seen as someone who hasn’t adequately stepped up and lacks the charisma or profile to beat a strong Republican candidate. Pete Buttigieg, the secretary of transportation and a presidential contender in 2020, is spoken of as an alternative — but his relative inexperience could be a factor for voters, and his sexual orientation may become a subject of Republican attacks. The California governor, Gavin Newsom, and the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom won their races on Tuesday, could potentially throw their hat in the primaries.

But, ultimately, the party may defer to Biden’s decision for challenging a sitting president is rare within a party. This debate may well extend to the middle of the next year and will also be shaped by developments on the Republican end.

Irrespective of the final contours of the presidential contest in 2024, the 2022 results have shown that American voters will be demanding, they are open to alternatives, and no candidate can take their loyalties for granted. As parties decide on the presidential candidates, the lesson won’t be forgotten.

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  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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    Prashant Jha is the Washington DC-based US correspondent of Hindustan Times. He is also the editor of HT Premium. Jha has earlier served as editor-views and national political editor/bureau chief of the paper. He is the author of How the BJP Wins: Inside India's Greatest Election Machine and Battles of the New Republic: A Contemporary History of Nepal.

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