How NDA’s electoral math fell apart in Maharashtra
This election was notable for being the first since the vertical splits of the 2 major regional parties in the state — Nationalist Congress Party and Shiv Sena
In Maharashtra, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance won 18 of 48 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) with a vote share of 43.8% compared to the 29 seats and 43.6% vote share garnered by the INDIA coalition partners. This election was notable for being the first since the vertical splits of the two major regional parties in the state — Nationalist Congress Party and Shiv Sena, and the results suggest that voters have largely stayed with the factions led by the founders, both of which were a part of the INDIA coalition. They also suggest that the biggest reason for the NDA’s showing in the state was actually the BJP itself.
Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray(UBT) won nine out of the 21 PCs it contested and garnered an overall vote share of 18.7%, while the Nationalist Congress Party-Sharadchandra Pawar(NCP-SP) won eight PCs out of the 10 seats it contested with a vote share of 7.7%. The Eknath Shinde-led-Shiv Sena only won seven out of the 15 PCs it contested with a vote share of 14.2%, while the Ajit Pawar-led-NCP only won one out of the 4 it contested and garnered a vote share of just 3.3%.
Split in NCP and Shiv Sena did not help NDA much
That the split has benefited the INDIA coalition more in this election is apparent from the fact that it won 12 of the 18 PCs that Shiv Sena and three of the four PCs that the NCP won in 2019. Out of the 12 PCs which saw a direct contest between Shiva Sen and Shiva Sena (UBT), the latter won eight. Meanwhile, the two Constituencies that saw a direct contest between NCP and NCP(SP) — Shirur and Baramati — were both won by the latter. Interestingly, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), which has been the stronghold of Shiv Sena and was swept by the NDA in 2019, saw a tie this time around with both the NDA and INDIA coalition winning five seats each. Shiv Sena (UBT) won three seats in MMR while the official faction came ahead in two.
But the big story was the BJP’s poor showing. The party saw a decline in the number of seats it won — from 23 in 2019 to 10 in 2024. This, despite its vote share seeing only a marginal decline from 27.6% in 2019 to 26.1% in 2024. But the overall vote share of party in state could also be skewed if it registers bigger victories in specific constituencies and contests a larger number of seats. Hence, looking at the median vote share — the middle value of the party’s vote PC-wise vote share — gives us a better picture. The median vote share of the BJP in Maharashtra has dropped from 52.2% in 2019 to 44.4% in 2024. On the other hand, while the vote share of Congress has marginally dropped from 16.3% in 2019 to 16.2% in 2024, its median vote share has actually increased from 35.4% in 2019 to 46.4%. Not surprisingly, the Congress put up its best performance since 1998, winning 13 of the 17 seats it contested with a strike rate of 76.5%.
Region-wise tally
Even in the Khandesh belt, which the NDA swept in 2019, they could win only four out of the eight seats this time around, with the other four going to the INDIA coalition. And in the Marathwada region, where the NDA won 6 out of 7 seats in 2019, it could only win 2 this time around. The region had been the epicenter of the Maratha agitation in recent years. Similar trends were also seen in the Vidarbha region, which was once a Congress stronghold, but saw the BJP’s domination in both 2014 and 2019. The INDIA coalition won 9 out of the 11 seats in the region, while the NDA could only win 2. The INDIA coalition also came ahead in Western Maharashtra, which is considered to be a stronghold of Sharad Pawar. However, the NDA was able to come out with more victories in the Konkan region, which includes MMR, as the NDA was able to win in Ratnagiri and Maval constituencies.
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