How the Chouhan factor may shape battle for MP
The BJP has not declared a chief ministerial candidate in MP, a departure for a party that usually projects the incumbent in states where it is in power
Panna/Sagar/Vidisha Surrounded by farmers in his agriculture goods shop in Raisen district of Madhya Pradesh, Biren Singh Gaur talks of change even as two young farmers talk about benefits provided by the chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led Bharatiya Janata Party government such as Ladli Behna scheme in which every woman beneficiary gets ₹1,250 per month.
Badlav (change) is a talking point among voters across MP elections, which, Guar says, reflects “very high corruption” in government offices, “arrogance” of local leaders and “anger” against the ruling BJP for buying MLAs to upset people’s mandate for change in 2018. “Mama ka control nahin raha (the chief minister is not in charge),” he said, referring to corruption in the government, even as the two young farmers, Subhash Sharma and Rahul Sharma, who claim to be BJP workers, listen to him silently. The BJP has not declared a chief ministerial candidate, a departure for a party that usually projects the incumbent in states where it is in power.
At Vidisha, a BJP bastion, Vijay Shah, a trader and old-time RSS-BJP worker, blames the influence of outsiders for BJP workers getting “disillusioned” and gives an example of the party electing an industrialist, who came from another party, as chair of a local municipality . “The BJP remembers workers only before elections to make them Panna Pramukhs (booth in-charges). Otherwise, they are forgotten,” he said at his hardware shop in Vidisha town, from where the BJP lost for first time in assembly polls since 1977 in 2018. “Things are not good for the party here this time too,” he said, uttering the B word, “Badlav” several times to vent his anger against the state BJP leadership. The Congress defeated the BJP in 2018, but the latter came to power in early 2020 after several Congress legislators resigned and joined it.
The Vidisha Lok Sabha seat, which includes Raisen district, is considered one of the safest seats for the BJP in the country ; former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee (1991), Shivraj Singh Chouhan (1991 after Vajpayee resigned to keep Lucknow Lok Sabha seat, 1996,1998, and 1999) and former external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj (2009) were all elected from there. Chouhan held a roadshow highlighting the Jan Sangh’s (the BJP’s predecessor) connection with Vidisha since Independence and how the voters have always backed the BJP there. The party has fielded Chouhan’s close confidante Manoj Tandon from Vidisha after his loss to Congress’s Shashank Bhargava in 2018. Bhargava, the sitting MLA, remains the Congress’s candidate.
THE CHOUHAN FACTOR
Chouhan, four-term chief minister and the longest serving BJP CM in the country, is not the party’s CM face for the November 17 state elections. He is among the dozen leaders on the BJP’s election posters in the state. But his supporters believe he will prevail -- within and without.
“If the BJP wins, Shivraj will be the CM again. There is no one else,” asserted Nanha Bhai Thakur, a farmer at Simariya village in Sagar district, admitting that Chouhan failed to check rise in local corruption after he took over from Kamal Nath of Congress in 2020 following the resignation of 22 Congress MLAs. In Indore, a dairy shop owner who asks not to be named is confident that Chouhan will be the CM again saying he has “developed” MP like no other leader and is still popular among people.
But elsewhere and with others, Chouhan also seems to have emerged as the face of 18 years of anti-incumbency, and the target of resentment against the government on charges of local corruption and turncoats becoming more powerful than “lifetime” BJP leaders. It is a fact not lost on the BJP’s central leadership, which has fielded three Union ministers and four other MPs in the state elections. Even though the CM is taking part in seven to eight election events every day, a senior BJP leader in Bhopal said says he is no more the most sought-after leader by candidates. “They are worried that they may face consequence of people’s anger against him,” he said. “It is clear to us that the party has sidelined him,” admitted a BJP worker in Panna. In public meetings in October, Chouhan asserted that he was in the race for the CM’s post but has been silent on the issue since then.
A former Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer, once considered close to Shivraj, who retired as additional chief secretary in the government a few months before the elections, attributed the shrinking popularity to “fatigue” with the CM. “He also lost his popular support among bureaucracy,” said this person who asked not to be named, mentioning resentment among district officials over being asked to mobilise people for political rallies. “This has never happened before,” he said, sentiments echoed to this reporter by two district collectors.
Bhopal-based journalist Dinesh Gupta says the anger against Chouhan appears significant compared to 2018 but adds that Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to be most popular national leader. “We never saw such an anger against Shivraj before, not even in 2018, when there was a strong anti-incumbency against him. He appears to be bearing the brunt of all that has gone wrong with the BJP in the state.”
SHIVRAJ VS KAMAL NATH
Among several narratives on the electoral ground, voters are comparing 15 months of Kamal Nath government versus 45 months of Shivraj government. Some find fault with the Nath government saying it was ineffective and corrupt, but others claim that nothing changed once Shivraj took over in March 2020.
“Kamal Nath gave 100 units of electricity free, doubled old age pension to ₹600, waived farm loans of up to ₹50,000,” said Sachin Singh Thakur, a farmer in Sagar’s Badtuma village, who claimed to be a BJP loyalist. Sitting next to him in the village chaupal, Rampal Prajapati, a Dalit, is quick to add that petty corruption was high in the Kamal Nath government, claiming he had to pay for the transfer of his daughter, a government schoolteacher.
At Manki village in Panna district, dominated by tribals, Ram Kali, 70, credits Nath for doubling old age pension , and rues that she does not get benefits under Ladli Behna scheme. “Younger and healthier women are getting ₹1,250 and I get only ₹600. Is this fair?” she asked. However, others in the village chaupal laud Chouhan for building a road to the village, at the foothills of Panna Tiger Reserve and providing electricity. “We also have taps under the Jal Jeevan Mission though water supply is not regular,” said 50-year-old Dhir Adivasi.
BJP leaders on the campaign trail are reminding voters that Nath did not keep his promises after winning in 2018 and will not do the same in 2023. “Kamal Nath did not keep even his single promise and his government was den of corruption. Farm loan of not even a single farmer was waived,” Chouhan said, during a roadshow in Sagar on November 7. The CM also said that his government has already implemented the 5Gs (five guarantees) of the Congress (manifesto), which includes monthly allowance of ₹1,500 to every woman of the state and cooking gas cylinder for ₹500.
The Congress is telling voters about “Kamal Nath Ka Bhorosa” saying he kept most of the promises made in 2018 and will do the same in 2023. “Kamal Nath showed that the Congress implements what is promises. Our poll promises are game-changer in this poll,” said Congress spokesperson Sandeep Sablok. But a senior Congress leader in Bhopal added that the party is banking on the anti-incumbency vote admitting that the party’s campaign on ground is “very weak” in absence of adequate financial resources.
REGIONAL NARRATIVESApart from overall state electoral narratives , from corruption to farm distress, there are other undertones in the six regions of the state.
In Gwalior-Chambal (30 seats) caste fault lines are dominant; Bundelkhand (26 seats) has a distinct narrative around police action against political opponents; communal tension and Hindutva politics is playing out in Malwa-Nimar (66) region; lack of development and poor health infrastructure are key electoral issues in backward Vindhya (30 seats) and Mahakoshal (38 seats) regions; and in Madhya Bharat (36), the most productive farm region of the state, the prices of agricultural inputs keeps coming up in the conversation.
“This election is a mix of hyperlocal issues and state-level issues related to corruption and welfare,” Gupta said, predicting that the common thread across the state would be anti-incumbency.
(With inputs from Ranjan and Shruti Tomar)
Recommended Topics