HT Explains: A 5-point FAQ on the Lok Sabha battle in West Bengal

West Bengal, which sends the third highest (42) lawmakers to Lok Sabha, is among the key states going to the polls in the remaining three phases of polls

Voters across nine states and one Union territory voted to elect 96 lawmakers in the fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections on Monday. Nearly 70% of the Lok Sabha’s strength of 543—379 seats— have now gone to the polls since the general elections kicked off on April 19. All of India’s south and north-east have voted. The remaining seats are spread across key states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Maharashtra, and West Bengal. In the first part of a series, Hindustan Times national editor Chetan Chauhan answers five questions on the elections in Bengal, which sends the third highest (42) lawmakers to Lok Sabha:

West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee addressing an election rally. (ANI)

Is the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) a poll issue?

The CAA is seen as a major issue for Muslims, who account for about 27% of the voters in Bengal, and Matuas, a part of the Dalit Namasudra community that migrated from East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in 1947 and during the 1971 India-Pakistan war. It triggered protests. CAA’s opponents have maintained it is discriminatory and unconstitutional since it links faith to citizenship and leaves out Muslims. There have also been concerns among Matuas about a lack of clarity in the rules that will govern the law and documents of the countries of origin needed for citizenship under CAA.

The notification of CAA rules days before the Lok Sabha elections even as the law was passed in 2019 also raised a few eyebrows. Only a handful have applied for citizenship as the rules do not cover those who came after December 2014. Questions have also been raised over why the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) took 10 years to fulfil its promise of fast-tracked citizenship process and over four years to notify rules after the law was passed.

The Matua Mahasangha, an organisation of Dalits with roots in Bangladesh, has opposed the rules saying they have created confusion and will not benefit many. Chief minister Mamata Banerjee has asked people not to apply under CAA as it will risk their residency.

What could be the possible poll impact of the action of federal agencies against top ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) leadership?

There appears to be some resonance of the corruption issue amid anger over local TMC leadership’s highhandedness. TMC workers have been accused of bribery (locally called cut money) in the delivery of welfare schemes. Mamata Banerjee even asked TMC workers to return the “cut money” in 2019.

The Calcutta high court has repeatedly ordered federal probes against TMC leaders even as Justice Abhijit Bandhopadhyay’s move to join the BJP and contest elections has blunted allegations against the ruling party. The TMC has accused Bandhopadhyay of giving politically motivated rulings before resigning as a high court judge to join the BJP.

The TMC has also tried to counter the corruption narrative by offering direct transfers of ₹3000 to ₹7000 monthly to poor households. Banerjee has over the last five years held meetings in districts and often pulled up her party cadre and officers for poor governance. Experts say she maintains her following among her loyal women voters.

How significant is polarisation?

Issues such as the construction of the Ram Temple, Muslim appeasement, and Pakistan do not have much traction even as Banerjee’s opponents accuse her of working for Muslims. There is some polarisation but it is unclear how much will it translate into anti-TMC votes. In 2022, a similar narrative was pushed but TMC won assembly polls hands down. The performance of local members of Parliament (MPs), employment, inflation, etc will have a greater impact. Anger against TMC appears more in urban areas than in villages, where people have benefitted from welfare schemes.

Will the Left-Congress alliance make any impact?

The alliance may not win many seats but can impact results in some. In 2019, the Left votes are believed to have transferred to the BJP. The situation is unlikely this time. Political experts say if the alliance cuts into TMC’s anti-incumbency votes, TMC will benefit. Except for the cadre, others may not vote in large numbers for the alliance. If the alliance eats into the Muslim votes, it is bad news for Banerjee. The Left parties have fielded over a dozen Muslim candidates. Most of the Muslim-dominated seats are going to polls in the next three phases.

Can BJP repeat its 2019 performance in reserved seats?

The tribals are believed to be unhappy with the performance of BJP MPs in the Jangalmahal region, forcing the party to replace Union minister John Barla as its candidate from Alipurduar with Manoj Tigga. The TMC has introduced direct transfer schemes as it has sought to win back tribal support. Mamata Banerjee has held meetings regularly in tribal areas to smoothen governance and address issues. The tribal-Muslim combination poses a significant challenge to the BJP, which won 18 seats in Bengal in 2019. The BJP has tried to woo tribals by celebrating their icons such as Birsa Munda and outreach programmes.