India Covid cases at 22-month low amid global surge
The pandemic numbers in India, however, appear to be clearly defying the global trend for now – the seven-day average new Covid-19 cases in the country is currently the lowest in over 22 months, according to HT’s dashboard.
After 40 days of near-consistent decline following what appeared to be the peak of Omicron wave the world over, new cases of Covid-19 – spurred by soaring infections in several counties in Asia, Oceania and Europe – have again started rising fast over the past two weeks, data shows.
The pandemic numbers in India, however, appear to be clearly defying the global trend for now – the seven-day average new Covid-19 cases in the country is currently the lowest in over 22 months, according to HT’s dashboard.
What is encouraging for the country is that many of the countries are seeing their first waves of the highly transmissible Omicron variant , while India has already been through its Omicron-linked spike in January. Also, despite the rise in infections, and even deaths in many countries (with fatalities in Hong Kong and South Korea rising to record levels) the world over, vaccination still appears to offer considerable protection against serious illness, according to real-world data.
Experts said that while cases are rising in several countries, including those that have already seen a previous Omicron surge in early 2022, the situation in India remains one of relative comfort. They said that while there remains a need for caution regarding a possible outbreak, there is no cause yet to be worried .
Alarmed by this reversal in the global case curve, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the rising numbers appear to be “just the tip of the iceberg”. “These increases are occurring despite reductions in testing in some countries, which means the cases we’re seeing are just the tip of the iceberg,” WHO’s head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Wednesday.
The global Covid curve is now clearly facing yet another resurgence, and a reversal in trend . The global seven-day average of new cases, which was dropping since January 24 (when it hit an all-time high of 3.45 million new cases a day) bottomed out at 1.48 million cases (or a fall of 57%) a day for the week ending March 2, according to Our World in Data. Since then, this number has been rising for two straight weeks – for the week ended Wednesday, it was 1.75 million cases a day, up 18%.
In terms of regions, the biggest contributor to the global tally is Asia, accounting for nearly half (48%) of all new cases reported in the world in the past week. It is closely followed by Europe, which is currently responsible for 42% of all new infections being reported in the world. Australia and New Zealand are accounting for 3% of the cases despite having under 0.4% of the global population.
But a closer look at these statistics presents a clearer picture of what is transpiring.
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A majority of countries in Asia and Oceania, where infections numbers are seeing a near-vertical rise, are those that are only now seeing their first Omicron outbreak – a trend that was common in nearly all countries that saw surges caused by this variant in December-January. Among these are regions such as Hong Kong, South Korea, China, Vietnam, New Zealand and Australia – all nations that had hitherto been more successful than others in keeping the Omicron variant out of their borders. As such, it is not surprising that cases are rising in these regions as a vast majority of the population in these countries would be vulnerable to infection – a factor that strongly favours a highly transmissible variant of Sars-Cov-2 such as Omicron.
The most concerning outcome of the wave is being witnessed in Hong Kong , which has earned the grim distinction of seeing the deadliest outbreak ever recorded in any country in the two-plus years of the pandemic. In the week leading to Thursday, an average of 37.6 people lost their lives to the viral disease every day for every million residents in the island state, the highest this number has every touched anywhere in the world.
The situation in the second group of nations appears to be following a path which is a relatively bigger cause for concern (especially for countries such as India). These are nations such as Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Netherlands that have already experienced a strong Omicron surge around late 2021 or early 2022, but are now experiencing a resurgence of infections. The fatalities, however, remain low in these countries.
In Switzerland and the UK, for instance, the seven-day average of new cases has gone up a whopping 85% and 80% since March 1. In Germany, this number has seen a 51% increase, while it has gone up 40% in France and Netherlands.In terms of deaths, Switzerland has seen a 35% spike (the highest among the countries here) in the same time period, followed by Germany (24% rise), and Netherlands (20%). France and UK, meanwhile, have seen deaths drop 35% and 7% respectively since March 1.
Experts have warned that since many of these countries with early mass vaccinations avoided outbreaks in certain population groups (like the elderly), waning immunity may be a cause for concern. In such people, boosters, studies show, may be good for robust infection protection only for four months. Further, many European nations like the UK had already started dropping all pandemic restrictions (including mask mandates), which naturally led to an uptick in cases. If this is true, it is a warning to Indian policy makers on the importance of booster doses for all adults and continued mask mandates.
There is an unknown variable here that scientists are still tracking -- the evolution of the virus. Recombination viruses of Omicron’s BA.1 and BA.2 lineages are under the scanner, as are versions that appear to be a mix of Delta and Omicron. Scientists in Europe fear that such factors may be responsible for the outbreak there although it may be too soon to tell what role these sub-lineages are playing, if at all.
“One of the only major reasons to be concerned about in the global sphere is the evolution of the virus. Countries the world over have to closely track genomic changes, to see if they could confer the virus the ability to spread faster, be more resistant or lead to worse sickness,” said Dr JA Jayalal, former head of the Indian Medical Association.
Back home in India, things are the polar opposite. After seeing off the third wave of infections in January, India currently is going through perhaps the easiest phase of pandemic since the absolute start of the outbreak in the country in 2020. In the week leading to Thursday, there were 3,115 new cases reported across the country every day on average. This is the lowest this number has been in more than 22 months – the last time the nation seven-day average was lower was on May 7, 2020, or 678 days ago, according to data compiled by HT.
On Thursday, Indian officials said that keeping in mind the global surge in infections, they plan to enhance domestic surveillance by testing all cases of respiratory infections admitted to district hospitals across the country for Covid-19 using RT-PCR.
Other datasets offer hope that even a strong resurgence of cases may be combatable. Data from Switzerland (one of the only countries in the world publishing daily death numbers disaggregated by vaccination status) shows that despite all case surges, the gains of vaccination are holding in the real world. Two shots of the vaccine is offering mortality protection by as much as 86% . Those boosted with a third shot are 96% more likely to survive (than the unvaccinated), according to Swiss data.
“In a global pandemic, there always remains a need to remain cautious about any flare-ups, but so far there are no reasons for India to be worried about a spike in infections like we are seeing in many countries abroad,” said Dr Jayalal. “As far as vaccinations are concerned, Indians are beyond a doubt well placed in terms of coverage of our population. Certain sections that are in prolonged exposure to the virus such as healthcare workers or those who are immunocompromised may need additional doses, but so far, India’s vaccination coverage appears to be holding adequately.”
India has so far authorised booster doses for frontline healthcare workers and those over the age of 59.