Number Theory: How formidable is the SP-Congress alliance in UP?

The SP’s performance has been largely consistent in terms of vote share, unlike the Congress which has seen a long-term decline in vote share barring 2009.

With 80 MPs in the Lok Sabha, Uttar Pradesh is the most important and largest state in terms of political representation in the country. Both in 2014 and 2019, when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a majority in Lok Sabha, it has pretty much swept the state, winning 88.8% and 77.5% of the total constituencies. Can an alliance of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress challenge the BJP’s dominance in the 2024 elections? Here are three charts that try to answer this question.

Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi