Number Theory: Should BJP have taken consumer sentiment data by RBI seriously?

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Election results are always easier to explain in hindsight. Therefore, it is tempting to attribute the Bharatiya Janata Party’s inability to secure a majority on its own to economic distress among the majority of voters. A lot of the commentary, including that published in these pages, has underlined the concerns around a K-shaped economic recovery in India since the pandemic. But was there any data which clearly pointed out that economic sentiment was grimmer in the run-up to the 2024 elections than it was in 2019? A comparison between 2019 and 2024 is important because the BJP increased its majority between 2014 and 2019, but relinquished it between 2019 and 2024.

RBI’s Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in 13 major Indian cities and captures the mood in urban areas(REUTERS FILE PHOTO)