President’s rule likely as no consensus in Manipur

BJP lawmakers in Manipur seek a successor to resigning CM Biren Singh as President's Rule looms, amid internal discord and ethnic violence.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lawmakers in Manipur on Tuesday scrambled to find a successor to caretaker chief minister N Biren Singh as the spectre of President’s Rule loomed large over the embattled state and a deadline for convening the assembly session neared.

President’s rule likely as no consensus in Manipur

Groups of BJP lawmakers held a string of meetings with the party’s north-east coordinator, Sambit Patra, as consensus eluded the legislators on choosing a successor to Biren Singh, who resigned on Sunday. Around 4.45pm, Patra along with BJP Manipur chief, Sharda Devi, and at least three lawmakers, reached the Raj Bhavan in Imphal and met governor Ajay Bhalla for about half an hour, said people aware of the matter.

The party or Raj Bhavan did not issue any statement, but people aware of the matter said the leaders may have informed Bhalla that they were yet to decide on Singh’s replacement.

Complicating matters was the looming deadline dictated by Article 174 (1) of the Constitution that says that the assembly, which was last adjourned on August 12, 2024, must be convened again within six months – February 12, 2025. As the deadline crept up, the possibility of President’s Rule increased in a state that has battled brutal violence for close to two years now.

BJP leaders said that the frontrunners to replace Biren Singh were finding it tough to get the support of lawmakers close to the caretaker CM, who was a polarising figure but one who was popular with his base. “We heard that most likely the assembly will be put under President’s Rule with the assembly in suspended animation,” said a BJP leader aware of the details.

If this is done, then the assembly will be placed in suspended animation and not dissolved, and can be revived at any time, thereby allowing legislators to try and form a majority government even as President’s Rule remains imposed on a state.

“It looks like the front runners were unable to get the support of all MLAs,” said the BJP leader quoted above.

The Opposition continued to push the government for a decision. Congress Rajya Sabha MP and constitutional expert, Abhishek Manu Singhvi, said President’s Rule was inevitable. “Constitutionally, legally and politically it seems inevitable that Manipur is headed for President’s Rule. This is so because, politically the ruling party won’t cede space to any other formation. The departure of the CM was delayed so much and the BJP itself is such a divided house, they have not let any alternative to occupy the space. President rule is inevitable,” he said.

But there was also a rivalling view. Former secretary general of the Lok Sabha, PDT Achary, said that the six-month rule under Article 174(1) did not apply in this case.

“The six-month rule does not apply in this case because there is no government in Manipur after the chief minister’s resignation. The CM’s resignation means there is no government. If the CM had not resigned then the assembly session should have been conveyed within the six month window,” he said.

Achary said that the governor now has two legal options. “He has to check if there is anyone with a majority who is ready to form the government. If no other MLAs have the required numbers or if no one has come forward, then he has to write to the Centre, share the information and then write for imposition of President’s Rule under Article 356,” he added.

There was no statement from the Manipur CM’s office, Raj Bhavan or the Union home ministry at the time of going to print. Biren Singh continues to be a caretaker CM because Bhalla had on Sunday evening, after accepting the former’s resignation, had asked him “to continue in office till alternative arrangements are made.”

The political drama began on Sunday when Biren Singh resigned as Manipur’s chief minister, hours after a meeting with Union home minister Amit Shah that followed days of discord within the BJP’s state unit and the threat of a no-confidence motion in the assembly.

Biren Singh submitted his resignation to Bhalla a day before the state assembly was scheduled to convene for the budget session, which was scrapped on Sunday evening. The resignation came five days after the Supreme Court directed a central forensics lab for a report on leaked audio tapes that allegedly feature Biren Singh and where he is purportedly heard as saying the ethnic violence in the state was instigated at his insistence.

Since then, the BJP has held a series of meetings to find political stability in a state that has been roiled by ethnic violence since May 2023. Around 250 people have died in clashes that began between the Meitei and the Kuki communities but have since engulfed the entire state. The Opposition and the Kuki community hold Biren Singh responsible for the escalation of violence.

BJP lawmaker Sapam Kunjakeswor told the media that they were discussing efforts to restore peace in Manipur and that the BJP high command will decide on the next CM.

Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh questioned why the Raj Bhavan had not summoned the assembly. “Today is the last day for a constitutionally mandated sitting of the Manipur legislative assembly’s session. Article 174 (1) of the Constitution of India stipulates that there cannot be more than a six-month gap between the last sitting of an assembly session and the first sitting of the next assembly session. Why is the Manipur governor violating Article 174(1) by not summoning the Manipur legislative assembly for its constitutionally mandated assembly session?” he wrote on X.

“The session was declared null and void because the BJP could not appoint a successor to the CM against whom the Congress was scheduled to move a no-confidence motion yesterday and who was forced to resign on Sunday night,” he added.

BJP leaders did not respond to requests for comment on the BJP.

Biren Singh’s resignation came against the backdrop of mounting internal discord and the threat of a no-confidence motion, with reports suggesting that up to 10 BJP legislators were prepared to cross party lines during the now-postponed assembly session.

On Sunday evening, within hours of Biren Singh’s resignation, Bhalla revoked his previous order calling for the assembly session on Monday (February 10).

On Tuesday, Patra continued to hold meetings with lawmakers seen as possible CM candidates. Among those whom he met behind closed doors were speaker T Satyabrata Singh, education minister Y Khemchand, Th Biswajit, former minister Th Radheshyam, and minister Awangboi Newmai, said people aware of the matter.

The hectic parleys underscored attempts by the party to find a leader who could address the ethnic conflict, appear neutral, and unite a fractured party unit.

A Manipur-based BJP functionary said that senior leaders were trying to get the 10 rebel Kuki-Zo tribal lawmakers to support the frontrunners. One Kuki-Zo legislator, who asked not to be named, confirmed the development.

“I had received a call from New Delhi on Monday evening asking for my availability for the meeting on February 12. Many MLAs are currently in Manipur and cannot take the flight from Imphal(located in the valley where Meiteis live) because of safety reasons. So, we have to go to Aizawl by road, which takes a day. We conveyed that we could not come at such short notice,” the lawmaker said.