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Return of the mainstream in Jammu & Kashmir

ByDhrubo Jyoti
Oct 09, 2024 08:36 AM IST

The 2024 J&K assembly elections marked a historic shift, with the NC-Congress coalition winning amid heightened political tensions and changing dynamics.

Before September 18, 2024, the last time a voter headed to exercise her franchise in an assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir, it was still a full state. It still had special status that gave it a degree of autonomy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had just swept to power in Delhi. Stalwarts such as Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Mulayam Singh Yadav, and J Jayalalithaa were still alive. India had not yet succeeded in landing on the dark side of the moon. And the Babri Masjid-Ram Janmabhoomi site was still a maze of barbed wires.

Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) party leader Omar Abdullah celebrates victory with supporters.(AP)
Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) party leader Omar Abdullah celebrates victory with supporters.(AP)

By any measure, the 2024 assembly elections in J&K were momentous. In one of the most militarised regions on earth, conducting free and fair polls is always among the tallest challenges before India’s democracy. But the stakes were raised further by the tectonic changes brought by the Union government on August 5, 2019, which stripped the region of its autonomy and statehood, and bifurcated it into two Union territories – J&K with an elected assembly, and Ladakh without. Discontent simmered as near-curfew restrictions were clamped and scores of political leaders detained. Internet connections were snapped and the Valley was ensconced in a security blanket. Then, a contentious delimitation process in 2022 sparked allegations by opposition parties of gerrymandering in favour of Hindu-majority Jammu at the expense of Muslim-majority Kashmir.

It was against this backdrop that the electoral process in J&K commenced in September and sparked an overwhelming response, especially in the Valley where communities that had boycotted polling for decades showed up in droves to exercise their franchise as Indian citizens. And it was this context again that made the National Conference-Congress’s victory such a watershed moment in the region’s turbulent history.

This was an extraordinary campaign. For the ordinary voter, profound questions about identity and community honour such as Article 370 and the restoration of statehood jostled for mind space with everyday governance issues such as the spiking price of power or taps running dry. People regularly showed up at meetings to talk about how their sense of pride at being Kashmiri was hurt by the central government’s actions but also unequivocally spoke about their faith in voicing that discontent through the electronic voting machine. The campaign showed that elections don’t need to be about the big questions or the small questions, they can be about all questions – that a person can reconcile their multiple identities and make a prudent political choice.

As it turned out, that choice, for an overwhelming majority of people in the Valley, was the NC. A party that once changed its name to appeal to the broadest possible cross section of the electorate and remains among the few that have tried their hand at land reforms blanked out opponents to post its best ever seat and vote share numbers. It won seats on either side of the Pir Panjal, in hubs of separatist sentiment and enclaves of civic action, to come close to forming the government on its own. Along with its partner, the Congress, the NC even managed to build a cushion should the lieutenant governor exercise his powers to nominate five additional members, pushing the halfway mark from 46 to 48. It was a remarkable victory of a moderate mainstream party in a field crowded by capricious players, conservatives and extremist leaders.

Three things made this happen.

One, the NC nullified smaller players.

This was the most fragmented contest in J&K in a generation. Other than the BJP and NC-Congress combine, the Peoples Democratic Party of former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, former minister Sajjad Gani Lone-led People’s Conference, the Apni Party, the Democratic Progressive Azad Party, and independent candidates backed by Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami-backed were also in the fray.

To counter them, the NC carefully crafted its campaign. It used its expansive cadre base to go door to door and point out the dichotomy of the Jamaat contesting elections through proxy after having backed violent poll boycotts for decades. It blunted the sympathy wave for separatists such as Engineer Rashid – he won a shock victory against NC vice-chief Omar Abdullah from Baramulla less than three months ago – by pointing out how he was swiftly released from prison ahead of the assembly polls to campaign. And it managed to paint smaller outfits such as Apni Party and PC as B-teams of the BJP, using the antipathy against the ruling party to bolster its own standing in the Valley.

Two, the NC re-established its credibility among ordinary people.

The changes in 2019 sapped the energy from Kashmir’s mainstream politicians. Under detention, they lost some degree of legitimacy in the eyes of a big chunk of the electorate. That sentiment was palpable this summer when Rashid was able to run a shoestring campaign from jail, mounted by his son, and still defeat Omar Abdullah by a handsome margin.

To counteract it, the NC harked back to its legacy, reminding people of the contribution of Sheikh Abdullah to the region. The party drafted a balanced manifesto, letting ideological issues share space with everyday governance concerns. The party put into action its young MP from Srinagar, Aga Ruhullah, to energise the campaign and tapped into the devoted following of its Anantnag MP, Mian Altaf. It created an emotive campaign around Omar Abdullah, underlining that no separatist had contributed to making the life of the poor Kashmiri better. It walked the tightrope between ideology and issues. And it was inadvertently helped by the Jamaat, which, by contesting the polls, excised its menacing shadow and allowed more NC voters to come out and vote.

And three, the PDP collapsed. As Mehbooba Mufti’s outfit shrank, it left no other legitimate mainstream option viable for the public. A party that was the single largest in the erstwhile state in 2014 was reduced to just three seats in the Valley. Its predicament in Mehbooba’s pocket borough of Bijbehara – where her daughter Iltija was trounced by the NC’s Bashir Shah – showed just how the NC had replaced the PDP in the mainstream.

NC’s triumph is not just a moment of personal redemption for Omar Abdullah, but is also an important moment for the Indian State. The people in the country’s most volatile region have decisively rejected separatism and leaders espousing extremist ideologies, instead reposing their faith in mainstream, moderate thought. It augurs well for democracy.

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