‘Symptomatic positivity’ of Covid-19 just 2% in Mumbai
Of the 38,983 positive cases detected in Mumbai since December 31, only 4,934 patients are symptomatic, according to the daily Covid bulletin released by the BMC
The positivity rate – the proportion of samples tested that return positive for Covid-19 – for symptomatic cases of Covid-19 in Mumbai is averaging at only 2%, against the overall city’s number of 16%, shows government data, highlighting how small a proportion of those being detected positive in the Omicron surge are exhibiting symptoms.
Of the 38,983 positive cases detected in Mumbai since December 31, only 4,934 patients are symptomatic, according to the daily Covid bulletin released by the Brahmanical Municipal Corporation (BMC). This means that nearly nine out of 10 persons who tested positive for Covid-19 in Mumbai in the past five days have not shown any symptoms.
In terms of positivity rate – a crucial metric that shows the spread of Covid-19 in a region – data shows that while positivity rate is rising in Mumbai, it is only not so for symptomatic cases (see trend lines in chart). This suggests that based on current data made available, while there is a rising spread in the community of the virus, those who are exhibiting symptoms are not contributing to the spread for now.
A very high proportion of Covid-19 patients not showing any symptoms also means that an overwhelming majority of cases do not require medical attention (and thus need crucial medical resources like oxygen and life-saving drugs). In the longer run, this is also likely to translate to fewer hospitalisation as well as deaths.
Starting December 31, BMC has introduced a breakup of asymptomatic cases in the daily Covid-19 bulletin for Mumbai – a dataset that has become particularly important with the surge of cases of the Omicron variant, which predominantly presents asymptomatic and mild infections. So far, BMC is among the only local authority in the country that is regularly releasing data that allows for the calculation of such statistics.
On Tuesday, there were 10,860 new Covid-19 cases in Mumbai, according to the bulletin. Of these, 9,665 did not present with symptoms, while 1,195 were symptomatic. Of the 8,082 new cases detected in the city on Monday, 7,273 were asymptomatic. Similarly, of the 8,063, 6,347 and 5,631 cases on the three preceding days (January 2, January 1 and December 31), 7,176, 5,712, 4,223 patients were asymptomatic, respectively.
In total, Maharashtra reported 18,466 new cases of Covid-19 on Tuesday – the most cases detected in a single day since May 30, 2021. This pushes the seven-day average of daily cases in the state to a 203-day high of 9,858. Less than a month ago, the seven-day average in the state was at 617, which means it has risen close to 1,500% in under 30 days, data shows.
The state also detected 75 cases of the highly transmissible Omicron variant on Tuesday. So far, Maharashtra has detected a total of 653 patients with Omicron – the highest in the country. Of these, 259 have recovered, and thus been discharged, as per state data.
“It seems that the Omicron strain is responsible as is evident from the rapid rise in number of cases. This seems to be an Omicron driven surge… but the severity of the infection is mild, so the number of cases is not accompanied by a corresponding rise in hospitalisations,” said Dr Pradeep Awate, the state’s surveillance officer.
“But vulnerable people are at risk. This includes those suffering from diabetes, hyper-tension, cancer or are immunosuppressed due to medical treatment. We should develop a strategy of the focussed protection of the vulnerable population,” said Awate.
Just around 10% of the state’s 66,308 active cases have been hospitalised. The state has around 275,000 dedicated Covid beds, which can be increased, according to the government. Of these, 3.5%-4% are currently occupied. Similarly, of the 98,000 oxygen beds, only 2.12% are occupied, as per government statistics.