The Congress faces 11 elections — and a moment of reckoning | Latest News India - Hindustan Times
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The Congress faces 11 elections — and a moment of reckoning

Jul 13, 2022 12:23 PM IST

With 11 state elections scheduled in the next 18 months, the party can either prepare the ground for national revival or disappear from the political map

New Delhi: A few days after the Congress government lost power in Rajasthan in December 2013, a top-rated social activist met party leader Rahul Gandhi with a note on why the Ashok Gehlot government got defeated despite making positive interventions in the social sector.

The upcoming elections pose a unique challenge for the Congress: Can the grand old party remain in power in even a single state? (File Photo) PREMIUM
The upcoming elections pose a unique challenge for the Congress: Can the grand old party remain in power in even a single state? (File Photo)

Gandhi kept the note aside and asked the social activist, where does she see Rajasthan ten years ahead.

It will be ten years since the conversation in 2023.

And next year, when the current Gehlot government faces the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Rajasthan election, the Congress possibly won’t have the luxury of looking at the long-term prospects of the state of Rajasthan. Already reduced to power in just two states— the same as Aam Admi Party (AAP) today, and remember the party made its debut only in 2012—the Congress is desperately trying to win elections and stay politically important in the Narendra Modi era.

But it is easier said than done.

The challenging election map

This year, two states are going to face assembly polls—Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Elections are also due in Jammu & Kashmir, currently under President’s rule, but there’s no indication so far that it would take place.

Next year, there are nine assembly elections in India — starting from Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland polls in February 2023, followed by Karnataka in May, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Mizoram and Telangana in November. And in the summer of 2024, the all-important national elections will be held.

This busy schedule is a challenge as well as an opportunity for the Congress party.

Ahead of the general elections in 2024, the Congress has an opportunity to expand its electoral footprint and win some of these states — a feat that can boost the confidence of the party and give it the much-needed fillip. But given the current state of affairs in the Congress and the way the Opposition has lost several states to the BJP in the polls, or at a later stage, the task of winning elections looks like a difficult proposition.

Also, the party’s resources are limited. A senior leader involved in the financial aspects of the party said, “Many of the well-wishers shy away from making donations to the party. We tell them that you could have bought the poll-bonds (provides anonymity for donors), they say, the government can still track us down.”

In his speech at Udaipur, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi echoed a similar concern, when he said, “They have much more money than us and they are better at communication than we are…”

But resources are not the key issue for the party. Its overall lack of political management, election strategies, and the absence of genuine vote-catchers in the top ranks of the party are a major concern.

2023 most crucial year

The upcoming elections pose a unique challenge for the Congress: Can the grand old party remain in power in even a single state?

Till 2014, when the Congress mastered the art of running coalition governments, the question would be unthinkable. But eight years later, the Congress is staring at the grave danger of being wiped out of power in all states.

The Congress party hasn’t won a single assembly election out of 12 states that went to poll from 2020 to date. This is the longest streak of electoral failure of the party. It lost to the BJP in north India and Northeast, got defeated by regional powerhouses in eastern and southern India and failed to protect its government in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and now in Maharashtra.

“A lot of the states are stolen, manufactured majority by an immoral BJP. Yes, we have lost these states because of the superior money power of the BJP. I can now see where 95% of the funds of the electoral bonds are being used. We lost some states because of the climate of fear, successfully created by the Modi government by the misuse of central agencies. Very little of this has to do with a genuine love for the BJP,” said senior Congress leader Abhishek Singhvi.

While the Opposition parties are vocal against the use of the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) as political tools against the non-National Democratic Alliance (NDA) governments, many leaders privately admit that the political management of an alliance had remained poor—as witnessed in Maharashtra when Uddhav Thackeray has been entirely sidelined in his family-run party.

The new steps of the Congress

The Congress party has overhauled its communication leading to a sharper approach to various issues. It has also roped in pollsters such as Sunil Kanugulo who helped run BJP’s UP 2017 campaign and as well as played a role in the 2019 elections, and has announced the formation of an election management committee with an eye on early planning for polls.

The measures might help the party.

Kanugulo, according to two leaders, in his first meeting with senior leaders pointed out how “Chowkidar Chor hai”—the Congress’ pet slogan to accuse wrongdoing in the Rafale deal, was a massive error for the party. “Kanugulo told us that as soon as the Congress latched on to the slogan, their internal surveys showed hardly anyone believing in it. Our surveys reported many people have started believing that PM Narendra Modi did wrong. The result showed our strategy was wrong,” said a senior leader involved in election management.

Now, Kanugulo has been given full charge of election management. All internal surveys are now done by Kanugulo’s team. A new set of spokespersons including leaders such as Kanhaiya Kumar will take charge soon. Mukul Wasnik is expected to be given a larger responsibility in the organisation. The party on July 12 made former union minister Milind Deora an observer for poll-bound Gujarat—a signal that the party is keen to reactivate young leaders sitting idle.

At the same time, Gandhi family loyalists are handsomely rewarded. In the last round of the Rajya Sabha election, the Congress nominated Jairam Ramesh, Randeep Surjewala, Ajay Maken, Mukul Wasnik, and Rajiv Shukla — all considered very close to Rahul Gandhi. It has two state legislators in Uttar Pradesh but nominated three leaders from the states as MPs—Shukla, Pramod Tiwari and Imran Pratapgarhi from that state to the Upper House, exposing a reckless strategy that doesn’t clearly gel with ground realities.

The party has reimposed its faith in the leadership of the Gandhis. On March 13, 2022, Congress president Sonia Gandhi offered to step down from the party’s post along with Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, but it was vehemently rejected by her colleagues.

The prospects in the states

Otto von Bismarck’s “Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best”, always provides hopes but many leaders of the Congress don’t actually dream of winning Gujarat—a state where the BJP is in power since 1998.

“In Himachal too, the Congress has limited prospects after the death of Virbhadra Singh”, said a leader. But between Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, the party has better prospects in the hilly state.

But retaining its governments in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the two Congress-ruled states would be an uphill task.

In Rajasthan, the Congress needs to put the House in order, settle the power division between CM Ashok Gehlot and former deputy CM Sachin Pilot, and make necessary adjustments to take on a Vasundhara Raje-led BJP.

Pilot, according to his loyalists, had been promised the CM’s seat ahead of the polls. At a rally against the Agniveer scheme, Rahul Gandhi even praised his “patience” but a solution is still elusive. A significant section opposes any rejig in Rajasthan CM office and points out that Pilot, 44, must wait.

Sachin Pilot might have already returned to Jaipur triumphantly, had an experiment to change the CM ahead of polls didn’t backfire in Punjab. The ouster of Captain Amarinder Singh, months before the election, to accommodate Navjot Singh Sidhu (who, incidentally has been removed from the PCC chief post after polls), proved to be a costly failure. The party lost power in Punjab where everyone predicted it would be a victory and a cautious Congress is unlikely to undertake similar experiments in the near future.

The pole positions of two strong leaders pose a Rajasthan-like problem for the Congress in Chhattisgarh too.

Tribhuvaneshwar Saran Singh Deo, the health minister had claimed that it was initially decided to share the CM’s seat between Bhupesh Baghel and him, a claim Baghel denies.

Baghel, arguably the most prominent OBC face of the Congress, has already faced two tribal-led agitations. Now, the Baghel government is gearing up to roll out the Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas (PESA) Act to woo tribals. The law, enacted in Parliament, gives concessions for self-governance in scheduled areas. The move can give significant political milage to the Congress.

AAP factor

In Udaipur, the Congress chintan shivir discussed at length the rise of AAP and how it can undermine the Congress but many Congress delegates undermined AAP’s political value by calling it a B-team of the BJP.

In reality, AAP has emerged as a viable alternative to both the BJP and the Congress in the vast stretches of north India. It already has dislodged the Congress in two states, Delhi and Punjab, and has an eye on a few election-bound states such as Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and possibly parts of Rajasthan.

The plan suits AAP well. The expansion can make it a national party, can position itself as a key challenger to the Modi-led BJP in 2024 and emerge as a key player in the Opposition circle.

AAP took out a march in Chhattisgarh’s capital Raipur to celebrate its victory in Punjab. The party’s state office has also been inaugurated while Delhi minister and AAP leader Gopal Rai has already held meetings to discuss strategies for the 2023 Chhattisgarh elections.

Singhvi says that AAP has a novelty factor which would dry up soon. Another senior leader described AAP as a “political start-up” and the Congress has kept Arvind Kejriwal’s party away from all Opposition activities in Parliament. But with ten MPs in Rajya Sabha and its government in two states, AAP’s growth is bound to hurt the Congress more than the BJP. In Goa, all Opposition parties suffered in a fractured contest with Congress, Trinamool, and AAP all going in different ways.

Karnataka and North East

Kanugulo’s entry into the Congress technically brightens up the party’s prospects in Karnataka, a state where the Congress is hopeful of returning to power next year. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has already met the party’s state chief DK Shivkumar and former CM Siddaramaiah in a bid to sort out their differences ahead of the elections in the state.

In Karnataka, the Congress is also set to go alone after its uneasy partnership with Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S) ended abruptly with the toppling of the coalition government.

In south Indian states, the Congress is also banking on “the popularity of Rahul Gandhi”. According to three leaders of the Congress, Gandhi is more popular in south India than in some BJP-ruled north Indian states. The party has also swiftly moved and formed a large political affairs committee in Karnataka that includes all major stakeholders.

In the Northeast, the Congress faces a challenge from BJP as well as Trinamool, another regional party on an expansion mode. According to two Congress leaders, the otherwise excellent personal ties between Sonia Gandhi and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee have soured to an extent after Trinamool wooed the Congress’s legislative wing in the Meghalaya assembly last year and overnight became the principal Opposition without actually winning a single seat.

In Tripura, Arunachal and Assam too, TMC, local outfits and above all the BJP makes it a tough election for the Congress. The battlelines are redrawn in the Northeast, one of India’s most sensitive areas, the Congress can’t bank on its legacy in that region but need to devise new tactics for each of the states that goes to poll next year.

But Karnataka, Uttarakhand, Goa, Madhya Pradesh and now Maharashtra have taught the Congress and other Opposition parties the most valuable lesson for election — a simple victory might not ensure a government for full five years with the BJP breathing down on the neck. Only a Rajasthan-like decisive victory and deft political management can ensure the survival of a Congress government in these troubled times.

Unveiling Elections 2024: The Big Picture', a fresh segment in HT's talk show 'The Interview with Kumkum Chadha', where leaders across the political spectrum discuss the upcoming general elections. Watch now!

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