The looming clouds over aircraft safety

The import of safety scrutiny of Boeing 737 Max 8 extends to passenger safety, airfares, flight operations—and the health of Boeing itself.

The second fatal crash of a Boeing 737 Max 8 plane in four months has raised concern over the safety of the in-demand aircraft model. Within a day of the March 10 crash of an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max 8, resulting in the death of all 149 passengers and eight crew, aviation regulators of three countries—China, Indonesia and Singapore—grounded the plane. Multiple airlines across the world raised an alarm. The Indian aviation regulator is watching the situation, the ramifications of which extend to passenger safety, airfares, flight operations and the health of Boeing itself.

In this photo dated November 12, 2018, the actual Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 - Max 8 plane, that crashed Sunday March 10, 2019, shortly after take-off from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, shown as it lands at Seattle Boeing Field King County International airport, USA.(AP)

Debuting in 1967, the family of Boeing 737s are the world’s largest-selling aircraft. The current 737 Max is the fourth generation of 737s and the 737 Max 8 (a size variant of the Max) is the model being delivered. Its predecessor, the Boeing 737 800, has seen 3,651 deliveries in the past 10 years, the most for an individual model.

The 737 Max 8—the plane in the spotlight today—has seen 350 deliveries to 46 airlines. And it has a rich pipeline of orders, of about 5,000 planes across 80 airlines. Leading this lot, in both orders and deliveries, is Southwest Airlines. There are two airlines from India in the top 10, namely SpiceJet and Jet Airways (chart 1).

 

The commercial passenger aircraft segment has largely been controlled by two entities, Boeing and Airbus, with both acquiring smaller manufacturers over the years. Historically, Boeing has maintained an edge, but Airbus caught up in 2018. Boeing’s lead in terms of deliveries, which was 127 planes in 2015 (762 versus 635) was shaved to just six in 2018.

Both manufacturers say they have above 10,000 aircraft currently in operation each as on date. Data on how many flights each does in a year is not available. However, the International Air Transport Association estimated a total of 38.1 million flights took place in 2018 across the world. Of these 66 flights were involved in an “official accident”, shows data Data since 2008 from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Or, an accident rate of 0.000173%.

The ICAO database traces accidents involving commercial flights since 2008, during which time 1,119 plane accidents have happened. Data on “official accidents” shows that Boeing aircraft suffered 425 accidents, against 201 by Airbus planes. They were followed by Bombardier, with 103 accidents (chart 2).

 

Even in terms of crashes classified as “serious” or “fatal” by ICAO, in the past decade, Boeing has a poorer record than Airbus. The differential between the two had narrowed between 2013 and 2017, but opened up again in 2018 (chart 3).

 

Over the decade for which ICAO data is available, the world is yet to see a considerable reduction in terms of air crash casualties. The 1,119 plane accidents since 2008 have resulted in 5,097 deaths. While a general trend in lower fatalities is seen, two years stand out: 2014 and 2018. The year 2014 saw two the infamous Malaysian MH 370 disappearance and the crash of an Algerian military commercial aircraft carrying army personnel and their families.

 

This calendar has begun grimly, and placed a cloud over one of the planes that has been earmarked to lead expansion in the commercial skies in the coming years.

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