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Understanding the latest global surge in Covid-19 infections

May 20, 2022 11:56 AM IST

Are deaths rising again too? What role is the global vaccination drive playing in protecting people? Here are three sets of charts that explain this.

After the peak of the global Omicron surge in late January, daily cases of Covid-19 saw a consistent (and rapid) decline for four months. However, in the past week, the seven-day average of daily cases on the global level has again started rising. Which regions are seeing a resurgence of infections? Are deaths rising again too? What role is the global vaccination drive playing in protecting people? Here are three sets of charts that explain this.

The seven-day average of new infections of Covid-19 across the world in the past week has touched 562,014, according to data collated by Our World In Data.(AP) PREMIUM
The seven-day average of new infections of Covid-19 across the world in the past week has touched 562,014, according to data collated by Our World In Data.(AP)

From the lowest point in months, global cases rising again

The seven-day average of new infections of Covid-19 across the world in the past week has touched 562,014, according to data collated by Our World In Data. This is a minor increase (a little over 8%) from what it was on May 8 when an average of 517,159 new cases were reported across the world. The May 8 figure, in fact, was the lowest level the global curve touched since mid-Novemeber, data shows.

The reason that a change in this statistic is significant is because this number dropped nearly steadily (with the exception of a minor blip in early March) after the global peak of the Omicron wave towards the end of January, when it soared to nearly 3.4 million new cases a day. From there on, as has been the case with Omicron surges seen in nearly every country, this number fell just as fast as it went up.

Looking at these numbers by continent, we see that Europe has been the biggest contributor to the global tally, accounting for a little over a third (34.7%) of all new cases reported in the past week. It is followed by Asia which is the source of 28.6% of all cases in the world in the past week, and North America with 20.3% of all such infections.

So, where is this rise coming from?

A closer look at countries, however, offers a better idea of where cases are rising. Nearly a fifth of all infections across the world in the past week can be traced to just one country – the United States, which for the first time in nearly 90 days again reported an average of more than 100,000 daily cases in the past week. In fact, in just the past 10 days, the case curve in the US has increased more than 40%, making it one of the fastest expanding outbreaks among major nations.

The country that has seen the second-highest infections in the world is Taiwan, which has reported 67,955 daily cases on average in the past week, data shows. What is alarming about the numbers from Taiwan, however, is the pace at which cases are growing – the case curve was just 19,373 infections a day just 10 days ago, capping a whopping 250% increase.

It is followed by Germany, which has reported 50,905 new cases every day in the past week. Data from Germany, however, shows that the country is currently experiencing a strong post-Omicron contraction. This is why the case curve has contracted by 27% in the past 10 days. In the fourth and fifth spot are Australia and Japan, which have reported 52,054 and 36,568 daily cases on average in the past week respectively. Cases have risen 24% and 28% in these two countries in the past 10 days, data shows.

A notable emission from this list is North Korea, which has only recently confirmed it is experiencing a massive Covid-19 outbreak for the first time in two years – having reported close to 2 million cases just the past week, according to the local press. Due to the extreme opacity in the data emanating from the isolationist nation, it has been excluded from global calculations.

But daily cases remain below levels not seen since March 2020

But despite the resurgence of cases across the world, what has been starkly different in the post-vaccinated world has been how well deaths have been contained. In the past week, there have been an average of 1,633 deaths across the world every day. This is the lowest that this number has been in more than two years – the only time the world has seen fewer people die was before March 2020, when the pandemic was just finding its first footing in countries across the world.

In fact, even during the Omicron surge, which saw cases soar to several times what previous records were, daily deaths never even came close to crossing the peaks seen during the Delta wave.

The reason that the latest surges have never been as fatal as the ones from earlier surges from 2020 and early 2021 is largely due to two reasons. First, over the course of the two years of the pandemic, doctors across the world have perfected the treatment, medicines, and resources (such as Oxygen) needed for treatment of the disease, and as such have been devising better ways for treatment.

Second is the impact of vaccination. In each subsequent wave, the proportion of the people vaccinated across the world has been increasing. During the more fatal surges in 2020 and early 2021, no vaccine had been developed for the disease, so not a single person in the world had been vaccinated. As this coverage has increased, it has suppressed the fatality of Covid-19.

This also offers us a real glimpse of how the world will eventually go on to live with the coronavirus disease – surges will come and go, but long countries focus on expanding vaccine coverage (which includes booster shots) , loss of life and livelihood will largely remain contained.

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  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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    Jamie Mullick works as a chief content producer at Hindustan Times. He uses data and graphics to tell his stories.

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