India under Modi more likely to respond with military: US intel on Pak goading

The US Intelligence annual assessment on Monday feared a military escalation between India and China after strained ties post 2020 Galwan clash and Narendra Modi's government retaliation against Pakistan in the event of unrest in Kashmir or terror attack in India by Islamabad supported extremist groups.

The US Director of National Intelligence in its annual threat assessment has predicted that India-China ties will remain strained after the 2020 Galwan clash and raised fears about an Indian retaliation against Pakistan in the event of a terror attack on India or a “violent unrest in Kashmir” orchestrated by Pak-based extremist groups.

Relations between India and Pakistan have been strained over the Kashmir issue and cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan.(PTI file)

In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, the unclassified report notes India’s potential conflicts with China and Pakistan could spillover with repercussions that may require immediate attention of the United States. Noting that the Russia-Ukraine war has emerged as a defining characteristic of the current era, the report said China has the capability to directly attempt to alter the rules-based global order while increasingly pushing to change global norms and potentially threatening its neighbours.

Highlighting the expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border, the report warned about the elevated risk of armed confrontation between the nuclear powers that “might involve direct threats to U.S. persons and interests, and calls for U.S. intervention.”

“Previous standoffs have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has the potential to escalate swiftly,” it said.

The intelligence report, released on February 6, noted potential India-Pakistan conflict with particular concern because of the risk of an “escalatory cycle between two nuclear-armed states.”

With Pakistan’s long history of supporting extremist groups, the report acknowledges higher probability of India responding with military force under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to “perceived or real Pakistani provocations.” The report says “each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints.”

On the issue of climate change, the report suggests that China and India will play critical roles in determining the trajectory of temperature rise. It blames the growing total and per capita emissions on their “reliance on cheap electricity generation from coal for economic growth, and because of their efforts to appease domestic constituencies who rely on the coal industry for jobs.”