What changed the fortunes of alliances in Maharashtra

The BJP has turned the tables and now it looks like the Congress is left without any worthy allies in the state.

That Maharashtra’s politics was headed for a structural break became clear on October 25, 2019, when the undivided Shiv Sena stalled the then National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) government formation despite the alliance winning a clear majority (161 out of 288 ACs) in the assembly elections. When the Shiv Sena decided to join hands with its ideological and political rivals, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), to form a government in Maharashtra on November 28, 2019, a political realignment of fortunes became preordained. The only question was whether the combined strength of the Congress and the two regional parties would destroy the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state?

Maharashtra deputy chief minister and BJP candidate Devendra Fadnavis waves the party's flag as he arrives to collect his winning certificate from the Nagpur South West Constituency, in Nagpur on Saturday. (ANI)

It has taken five years for that question to be answered –– that local body polls were not conducted in the interim kept it in abeyance – but it seems to have become clear now. The BJP has turned the tables and now it looks like the Congress is left without any worthy allies in the state with the BJP-aligned factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP registering big victories in the elections. The BJP-led NDA, which is now called Mahayuti, has returned with a much bigger (235 out of 288) majority in Maharashtra now. And the BJP itself would appear to be stronger than before. The political and geographical mechanics of this tectonic shift are worth looking at in detail.

Let us look at the geographical change first

In the 2019 assembly elections, the Congress and the BJP won a total of 149 ACs (BJP 105 and Congress 44) in Maharashtra. The BJP has won 98 of the 105 ACs it won in 2019 once again this time. Of the seven it did not win in 2024 but won in 2019, it did not contest one and gave it to its allies to fight. The remaining six have been won by the Congress or its allies.

If one were to compare an NDA (BJP+Shiv Sena) to NDA (BJP+Shiv Sena+NCP) comparison between the 2019 and 2024 assembly elections, the alliance has retained a massive 87% of the 161 ACs it won in 2019 and gained another 95 ACs. NDA lost just 20 of the ACs it won in 2019 in these elections.

There are 35 ACs which have been won by the Mahayuti in the 2024 elections which were never won by the BJP or any of its allies since 2009. This includes ACs won by the Shiv Sena in 2014 when Congress, BJP, NCP and Shiv Sena contested separately. A pre-2009 comparison is not possible because of a change in AC boundaries in the 2008 delimitation.

Things are on the other extreme for the Congress-led Maharashtra Vikas Agadi (MVA).

Of the 98 ACs the Congress-NCP alliance won in 2019, it has retained just 24 and lost 71 of them to the Mahayuti. To be sure, the MVA has won 26 ACs that the Congress-NCP alliance did not win in 2019. A large number of them (17) are because of the Shiv Sena (UBT). However, the number is insignificant in the larger scheme of things. The new assembly might not even have a leader of opposition.

What explains this change in Maharashtra’s political map?

This is where it becomes interesting. The political contest in Maharashtra in these elections was an eclectic mix of ideology and a battle for political inheritance. The first was in the contest between the BJP and the Congress-led alliances and two factions of the Shiv Sena and NCP. The second was within the Shiv Sena and the NCP in terms of claiming the legacy of the undivided parties. Voters seem to have decided both clearly.

There were 73 head-to-head contests between the Congress-BJP in these elections. the BJP has won 86.3% of these, a big improvement from its 68.4% strike rate in similar contests in the 2019 assembly elections. The BJP has also done extremely well in contests against non-Congress MVA components with a strike rate of 87.2%. Congress’s strike rate against non-BJP Mahayuti is just 18.5%, only marginally higher than its performance against the BJP.

Chart 1:

The Shiv Sena (UBT) and Shiv Sena fought 53 head-to-head contests. Shiv Sena has won 69.9% of these contests. Almost a similar outcome can be seen in the contests between the NCP (Sharad Pawar) or NCP(SP) and the NCP, with the latter winning 70.7% of the 41 head-to-head contests.

 

Change in Maharashtra's political map

Chart 2:

There is also another way to look at the political realignment in Maharashtra. The MLA count of the BJP and the combined count of the Shiv Sena and NCP has increased or almost remained the same in 2024 compared to 2019. The Shiv Sena had 56 MLAs in 2019 and the Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT) have won 57 and 20 MLAs in these elections. The NCP had 54 MLAs in 2019 and the NCP and NCP (SP) factions have won 41 and 10 ACs in these elections. The only party which has seen its MLA count fall drastically is the Congress which will have to contend with just 16 MLAs compared to 44 in 2019.

The Shiv Sena and the NCP might have seen palace coups in the period between 2019 and 2024, but it is the Congress in Maharashtra that is facing a battle for survival now.