Lok Sabha elections 2019: AIADMK faces test in election after Jayalalithaa era - Hindustan Times
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Lok Sabha elections 2019: AIADMK faces test in election after Jayalalithaa era

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha
Apr 18, 2019 01:28 PM IST

The AIADMK created history by retaining power in Tamil Nadu by winning the assembly elections twice in a row, 2011 and 2016, ending a two-decade old trend. Tamil Nadu has flipped between the AIADMK and the DMK since 1989.

2019 will be the first parliamentary election in Tamil Nadu after the death of two of the state’s biggest leaders: J Jayalalithaa of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and M Karunanidhi of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The AIADMK created history by retaining power in Tamil Nadu by winning the assembly elections twice in a row, 2011 and 2016, ending a two-decade old trend. Tamil Nadu has flipped between the AIADMK and the DMK since 1989.

The results of 2019 polls will not just have a bearing on government formation at the Centre, but also give much needed clarity on the prevailing political uncertainty in the state.(REUTERS)
The results of 2019 polls will not just have a bearing on government formation at the Centre, but also give much needed clarity on the prevailing political uncertainty in the state.(REUTERS)

What is ironical is that the AIADMK’s alliance formula is not in keeping with its historic achievement in the 2016 elections. The AIADMK is only contesting 20 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu in these Lok Sabha elections, the lowest since 1996. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is contesting five seats in alliance with the AIADMK, while the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) are contesting seven and four seats respectively. The Puthiya Tamilagam, the Puthiya Needhi Katchi, and the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) have got one seat each.

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To be sure, the DMK is also contesting only 20 seats in the state, but this is in keeping with its earlier alliance adjustments.

(See Chart 1: Seats contested by AIADMK and DMK in Tamil Nadu)

Why has the AIADMK ceded so much ground to its alliance partners? One, it does not have the charisma of Jayalalithaa anymore. An even bigger problem for the AIADMK is that succession battles after Jayalalithaa’s death might have significantly weakened the party. Eighteen of the 134 AIADMK’s MLAs were disqualified by the speaker of the state assembly in September 2017, after they sided with TTV Dhinakaran, the former chief minister’s protege. Dhinakaran later established his political clout by managing to wrest RK Nagar, Jayalalitha’s assembly seat, in a bypoll held in December 2017. He has floated a new party called the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).

How much damage can the AMMK cause the AIADMK? An extrapolation of 2016 assembly results at the parliamentary constituency (PC) level suggests that it could be significant. The AIADMK’s PC-wise extrapolated tally would have come down from 34 to 27 if the votes of rebel MLAs were to be subtracted. If these MLAs are able to retain their popular support, it could lead to a significant reduction in the AIADMK’s vote share.

(See Chart 2: Before and after disqualification)

To be sure, the AMMK could also play spoiler for the DMK alliance. The DMK’s vote share came down by 19 percentage points between the 2016 assembly election and the 2017 by-poll in the RK Nagar assembly constituency. It is also difficult to say whether other smaller parties in the AIADMK alliance will be able to offset for the loss of votes on account of the AMMK.

The results of 2019 polls will not just have a bearing on government formation at the Centre, but also give much needed clarity on the prevailing political uncertainty in the state.

 

Constituency Sitting MP
Assam
Karimganj Radheshyam Biswas, AIUDF
Silchar Sushmita Dev, Congress
Autonomous District Biren Singh Engti, Congress
Mangaldoi Ramen Deka, BJP
Nawgong Rajen Gohain, BJP
Bihar
Kishanganj Mohammad Asrarul Haque, Congress
Katihar Shah Tariq Anwar, NCP
Purnia Santosh Kumar, JD(U)
Bhagalpur Shailesh Kumar (Bulo Mandal), RJD
Banka Jai Prakash Narayan Yadav, RJD
Chhattisgarh
Rajnandgaon Abhishek Singh, BJP
Mahasamund Chandulal Sahu, BJP
Kanker Vikram Dev Usendi, BJP
Jammu and Kashmir
Srinagar Farooq Abdullah, National Conference
Udhampur Dr. Jitendra Singh, BJPs
Karnataka
Udupi Chikmagalur Shobha Karandlaje, BJP
Hassan H.D. Deve Gowda, JD(S)
Dakshina Kannada Nalin Kumar Kateel, BJP
Chitradurga B.N.Chandrappa, Congress
Tumkur S. P. Muddahanumegowda, Congress
Mandya CS Puttaraju, JD(S)
Mysore Prathap Simha, BJP
Chamrajanagar R Dhruvanarayana, Congress
Bangalore Rural DK Suresh, Congress
Bangalore North DV Sadananda Gowda, BJP
Bangalore Central PC Mohan, BJP
Bangalore South Vacant after Ananth Kumar’s death in 2018
Chikkaballapur Veerappa Moily, Congress
Kolar KH Muniyappa, Congress
Maharashtra
Buldhana Jadhav Prataprao Ganpatrao, Shiv Sena
Akola Dhotre Sanjay Shamrao, BJP
Amravati Adsul Anandrao Vithoba, Shiv Sena
Hingoli Rajeev Shankarrao Satav, Congress
Nanded Ashok Shankarrao Chavan, Congress
Parbhani Jadhav Sanjay (Bandu) Haribhau, Shiv Sena
Beed Pritam Gopinathrao Munde, BJP
Osmanabad Gaikwad Ravindra Vishwanath, Shiv Sena
Latur Dr. Sunil Baliram Gaikwad, BJP
Solapur Sharad Bansode, BJP
Manipur
Inner Manipur Thokchom Meinya, Congress
Odisha
Bargarh Prabas Kumar Singh, BJD
Sundargarh Jual Oram, BJP
Bolangir Kalikesh Narayan Singh Deo, BJD
Kandhamal Pratyusha Rajeshwari Singh, BJD
Aska Ladu Kishore Swain, BJD
Constituency Sitting MP
Tamil Nadu
Tiruvallur Dr. P. Venugopal, AIADMK
Chennai North TG Venkatesh Babu, AIADMK
Chennai South J Jayavardhan, AIADMK
Chennai Central SR Vijayakumar, AIADMK
Sriperumbudur KN Ramachandran, AIADMK
Kancheepuram K Maragatham, AIADMK
Arakkonam G Hari, AIADMK
Vellore B. Senguttuvan., AIADMK
Krishnagiri K Ashok Kumar, AIADMK
Dharmapuri Anbumani Ramadoss, PMK
Tiruvannamalai Vanaroja R, AIADMK
Arani V Elumalai, AIADMK
Villupuram Rajendran S., AIADMK
Kallakurichi K. Kamaraj, AIADMK
Salem V Pannerselvam, AIADMK
Namakkal PR Sundaram, AIADMK
Erode S Selvakumara Chinnayan, AIADMK
Tiruppur V.Sathyabama, AIADMK
Nilgiris C Gopalakrishnan, AIADMK
Coimbatore P Nagarajan, AIADMK
Pollachi C Mahendran, AIADMK
Dindigul M Udhayakumar, AIADMK
Karur M Thambidurai, AIADMK
Tiruchirappalli Kumar.P, AIADMK
Perambalur RP Marutharajaa, AIADMK
Cuddalore A Arunmozhithevan, AIADMK
Chidambaram M Chandrakasi, AIADMK
Mayiladuthurai RK Bharathi Mohan, AIADMK
Nagapattinam Dr K Gopal, AIADMK
Thanjavur K Parasuraman, AIADMK
Sivaganga PR Senthilnathan, AIADMK
Madurai R Gopalakrishnan, AIADMK
Theni R Parthipan, AIADMK
Virudhunagar Radhakrishnan T., AIADMK
Ramanathapuram Anwhar Raajhaa, AIADMK
Thoothukkudi Jeyasingh Thiyagaraj Natterjee.J, AIADMK
Tenkasi M Vasanthi, AIADMK
Tirunelvelli Prabakaran.K.R.P, AIADMK
Kanniyakumari Pon Radhakrishnan, BJP
Uttar Pradesh
Nagina Yashwant Singh, BJP
Amroha Kanwar Singh Tanwar, BJP
Bulandshahr Bhola Singh, BJP
Aligarh Satish Kumar Gautam, BJP
Hathras Ranjan Kumar Diwakar, BJP
Mathura Hema Malini, BJP
Agra Ram Shankar Katheria, BJP
Fatehpur Sikri Chaudhary Babulal, BJP
West Bengal
Jalpaiguri Bijoy Chandra Barman, Trinamool
Darjeeling SS Ahluwalia, BJP
Raiganj Md Salim, CPI(M)
Puducherry
Puducherry R Radhakrishnan, AINRC
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