Lok Sabha elections 2019: In Karnataka, coalition math key to Opposition strategy - Hindustan Times
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Lok Sabha elections 2019: In Karnataka, coalition math key to Opposition strategy

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByAbhishek Jha
May 02, 2020 08:05 PM IST

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 17 out of the 28 seats in Karnataka in the 2014 elections. Karnataka is the only southern state where the BJP has consistently performed well.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 17 out of the 28 seats in Karnataka in the 2014 elections. Karnataka is the only southern state where the BJP has consistently performed well.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 17 out of the 28 seats in Karnataka in the 2014 elections.(AP File Photo)
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 17 out of the 28 seats in Karnataka in the 2014 elections.(AP File Photo)

Even in 2004 and 2009, when the BJP got lesser seats than the Congress at the all-India level, it finished ahead of the Congress in Karnataka, winning 18 and 19 seats respectively. With the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) coming together in an alliance in 2019, the political equation has changed in the state.

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The BJP had won 11 out of the 14 seats in Karnataka which will go to polls on Tuesday. The constituencies are in a region where the JD(S) does not have much of a presence.

The BJP was ahead of the combined vote share of the Congress and the JD(S) in these 14 seats in both 2009 and 2014. Comparisons before 2009 are not possible because of change in constituency boundaries due to delimitation.

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A simple addition of Congress and JD(S) vote shares for 2014 at the parliamentary constituency (PC) level would have reduced the BJP’s tally in these seats by just one.

What is interesting is that the potential gains from a Congress-JD(S) alliance appear to be much bigger in assembly elections. A PC-wise extrapolation of 2008, 2013 and 2018 assembly elections shows that the Congress-JD(S) are significantly ahead of the BJP both in terms of seat share and vote share.

While both the Congress and the BJP tend to lose vote share in the assembly elections, the JD(S) seems to be making gains at the cost of the two national parties.

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To be sure, the extraordinary dent in the BJP’s 2013 performance could also be a result of defection of important leaders such as B S Yeddyurappa and B Sriramulu from the party.

See Chart 1: LS and Assembly vote share of Congress-JD(S) and BJP in 14 seats

While voter preferences vary in national and state elections, the rather large gap between the performances of the Congress and the JD(S) between the two is a bit intriguing.

One possible explanation for this could be the fact that the JD(S) was seen to be less capable of winning in the Lok Sabha polls against the two national parties.

In fact, the JD(S) did not contest all of the 14 seats scheduled for polling Tuesday in both 2009 and 2014. The important question to be asked in 2019 is whether an alliance with the Congress will boost the mutual gains to both the JD(S) and the Congress in these 14 seats in the state.

Also read: In biggest phase of Lok Sabha polls, BJP faces test in its strongholds

If the November 2018 bypolls for Shivamogga and Ballari PCs are an indicator, this could indeed be a possibility. The BJP won both these seats in 2009 and 2014. However, the Congress was able to wrest Ballari from the BJP and the JD(S) candidate was able to reduce the BJP’s 2014 victory margin by 27 percentage points in Shivamogga.

To be sure, the Shivamogga bypoll results also show that the Congress-JD(S) lead in assembly elections might not translate in Lok Sabha elections.

The combined vote share of the Congress and the JD(S) was 7.4 percentage points more than that of the BJP in Shivamogga PC in the 2018 assembly elections.

While the Congress-JD(S) alliance might enjoy the tailwinds from a better than usual performance by the JD(S) in these seats, it could also face potential headwinds from discontent within Congress ranks due to giving up seats to the JD(S).

Out of the three PCs – Bijapur, Uttar Kannada and Shivamogga – which the Congress has given to the JD(S) as part of the alliance, the JD(S) did not even contest Uttar Kannada and polled only 6% of the popular vote in Bijapur. The Congress might have a difficult time in convincing its local leaders to rally behind what they could perceive as a top-down alliance with the JD(S).

 

Constituency Sitting MP
Assam
Dhubri Badruddin Ajmal, AIUDF
Kokrajhar Naba Kumar Sarania, IND
Barpeta Sirajuddin Ajmal, AIUDF
Gauhati Bijoya Chakravarty, BJP
Bihar
Jhanjharpur Birendra Kumar Choudhary, BJP
Supaul Ranjeet Ranjan, Congress
Araria Sarfaraz Alam, RJD 
Madhepura Pappu Yadav, RJD
Khagaria Mehboob Ali Kaiser, LJP
Chhattisgarh
Surguja Kamalbhan Singh Marabi, BJP
Raigarh Vishnu Deo Sai, BJP
Janjgir-Champa Kamla Patle, BJP
Korba Banshilal Mahto, BJP
Bilaspur Lakhan Lal Sahu, BJP
Durg Tamradhwaj Sahu, Congress
Raipur Ramesh Bais, BJP
Goa
North Goa Shripad Yesso Naik, Bharatiya Janata Party
South Goa Narendra Keshav Sawaikar, BJP
Gujarat
Kachchh Vinod Lakhamashi Chavda, BJP
Banaskantha Haribhai Parthibhai Chaudhary, BJP
Patan Liladharbhai Vaghela, BJP
Mahesana  Jayshreeben Kanubha Patel, BJP
Sabarkantha Dipsinh Shankarsinh Rathod, BJP
Gandhinagar LK Advani, BJP
Ahmedabad East Paresh Rawal, BJP
Ahmedabad West Kirit Premjibhai Solanki, BJP
Surendranagar Devjibhai Govindbhai Fatepara, BJP
Rajkot Mohanbhai Kundariya, BJP
Porbandar Vitthalbhai Hansrajbhai Radadiya, BJP
Jamnagar Poonamben Hematbhai Maadam, BJP
Junagadh Chudasama Rajeshbhai Naranbhai, BJP
Amreli Naranbhai Bhikhabhai Kachhadiya, BJP
Bhavnagar Dr Bharatiben Dhirubhai Shiyal, BJP
Anand Dilip M Patel, BJP
Kheda Devusinh Chauhan, BJP
Panchmahal Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh Chauhan, BJP
Dahod  Jaswantsinh Sumanbhai Bhabhor, BJP
Vadodara Ranjanben Dhananjay Bhatt , BJP (won bypoll)
Chhota Udaipur Ramsinh Rathwa, BJP
Bharuch Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava, BJP
Bardoli Prabhubhai Nagarbhai Vasava, BJP
Surat Darshana Vikram Jardosh, BJP
Navsari CR Patil, BJP
Valsad KC Patel, BJP
Jammu and Kashmir
Anantnag Vacant
Karnataka
Chikkodi Prakash Hukkeri, Congress
Belgaum Angadi Suresh Channabasappa, BJP
Bagalkot Gaddigoudar Parvatagouda Chandanagouda, BJP
Bijapur  Ramesh Jigajinagi, BJP
Gulbarga Mallikarjun Kharge, Congressha
Raichur BV Nayak, Congress
Bidar Bhagwanth Kuba, BJP
Koppal Karadi Sanganna Amarappa, BJP
Bellary B. Sreeramulu, BJP
Haveri Udasi Shivakumar Channabasappai, BJP
Dharwad Pralhad Joshi, BJP
Uttara Kannada Ananthkumar Hegde, BJP
Davanagere
Shimoga BS Yeddyurappa, BJP
Constituency Sitting MP
Kerala
Kasaragod P Karunakaran, CPI(M)
Kannur PK Srieemathi, CPI(M)
Vadakara Mullappally Ramachandran, INC
Wayanad  
Kozhikode Vacant after sitting MP MI Shavas of Congress died in 2016
Malappuram E. Ahamed, IUML
Ponnani ET Mohammed Basheer, IUML
Palakkad MB Rajesh, CPI(M)
Alathur P.K.Biju, CPI(M)
Thrissur C. N. Jayadevan, CPI
Chalakudy Innocent, Independent
Ernakulam KV Thomas, Congress
Idukki dv. Joice George, Independent
Kottayam  Jose K. Mani, Kerala Congress (M)
Alappuzha  KC Venugopal, Congress
Mavelikkara Kodikunnil Suresh, Congress
Pathanamthitta Anto Antony, Congress
Kollam NK Premachandran, RSP
Attingal A Sampath, CPI(M)
Thiruvananthapuram Shashi Tharoor, Congress
Maharashtra
Jalgaon A.T. Nana Patil, BJP
Raver Khadase Raksha Nikhil, BJP
Jalna Danve Raosaheb Dadarao, BJP
Aurangabad Sushil Kumar Singh, BJP
Raigad Anant Geete, Shiv Sena
Pune Anil Shirole, BJP
Baramati Supriya Sule, NCP
Ahmednagar Gandhi Dilipkumar Mansukhlal, BJP
Madha ohite Patil Vijaysinh Shankarrao, Nationalist Congress Party
Sangli Sanjaykaka Patil, BJP
Satara Udayanraje Pratapsinha Bhonsale, NCP
Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg Vinayak Bhaurao Raut, Shiv Sena
Kolhapur Dhananjay Bhimrao Mahadik, NCP
Hatkanangle Raju Shetty, Swabhimani Paksha
Odisha
Sambalpur Nagendra Kumar Pradhan, BJD
Keonjhar Sakuntala Laguri, BJD
Dhenkanal Tathagata Satpathy, BJD
Cuttack Bhartuhari Mahatab, BJD
Puri Pinaki Misra, BJD
Bhubaneswar  Prasanna Kumar Patasani, BJD
Uttar Pradesh
Moradabad Kunwar Sarvesh Kumar, BJP
Rampur Nepal Singh, BJP
Sambhal Satyapal Singh, BJP
Firozabad  Akshay Yadav, SP
Mainpuri Tej Pratap Singh Yadav, SP
Etah Rajveer Singh, BJP
Badaun Dharmendra Yadav, SP
Aonla Dharmendra Kumar, BJP
Bareilly  Santosh Kumar Gangwar, BJP
Pilibhit Maneka Gandhi, BJP
West Bengal
Balurghat Arpita Ghosh, Trinamool Congress
Maldaha Uttar Mausam Noor, Congress
Maldaha Dakshin Abu Hasem Khan Chowdhury, Congress
Jangipur Abhijit Mukherjee, Congress
Murshidabad  Badaruddoza Khan, CPI(M)
Dadra and Nagar Haveli
Dadra and Nagar Haveli Natubhai Gomanbhai Patel, BJP
Daman and Diu
Daman and Diu Lalubhai Patel, BJP
Tripura
East Tripura  Jitendra Choudhury, CPI(M)
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