3 key hurdles will define Rahul’s future in politics

Rahul Gandhi's return to Parliament and his upcoming challenges in defining his role and leading the Opposition against the BJP government.

Rahul Gandhi made a comeback in Parliament this week with a speech during a no-confidence motion against the Narendra Modi government. The Congress believes that his reinstatement after the Supreme Court stayed his sentence and his emotive speech on the no-confidence motion marks a turning point before the 2024 polls, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) dismissed it as the latest attempt to launch a leader who has never won a national election for his party. Notwithstanding the content and structure of Gandhi’s speech, what does his return mean for emerging politics; especially when the opposition is making its first serious attempt to present a united front against the BJP government? The 53-year-old leader faces three challenges – ideological, organisational, and electoral – and his response will decide whether he’s relegated to the backbenches, or takes centre stage.

The first challenge is to define Gandhi’s role in the Congress. (ANI)

The first challenge is to define Gandhi’s role in the Congress. Does he want to be the main articulator of the party’s ideological position? Or does he want to be its chief strategist resolving organisational nitty gritties? For other leaders, these two roles wouldn’t be mutually exclusive. But past experiences with Gandhi at the helm haven’t been smooth, and the party can’t afford any more missteps; especially when the party has an elected head in Mallikarjun Kharge.

The Congress’s devastating losses in 2014 and 2019, in addition to Gandhi’s loss in the family pocket borough of Amethi in 2019, severely damaged his carefully curated image between 2004 and 2012. Some of this was regained by the Bharat Jodo Yatra, where he finally demonstrated some grit and staying power. His impromptu appearances, efforts to talk to ordinary people and some attempts at spontaneity won him a measure of popularity, and helped counteract the perception — built over time, that he is surrounded by a small coterie of cronies who have little political experience and remain inaccessible to even senior leaders (think of the charges made by the G23 group).

As the Congress plans the second leg of the Bharat Jodo Yatra, Gandhi also needs to make a choice on his positioning against Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi. Does he want to emerge as Modi’s ideological counterweight? Opinion polls suggest Modi remains extremely popular, though some cracks are visible in the BJP’s support due to economic concerns. Can Gandhi mobilise this section? Can he find ways to develop a vocabulary that moves away from ideologically abstract platforms to mass issues?

The second challenge is to keep the Opposition united and maintain the momentum generated from the formation of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). The Congress so far has given an impression that it is ready to take a backseat to Opposition unity. It has neither pressed to be the leader of INDIA, nor pushed for Gandhi or any other leader to be the face of the front. But these positions don’t seem tenable, especially as polls draw closer.

The Congress remains the largest party in the Opposition bloc and it is unlikely to give away seats that may diminish its strength. The suspicion by other parties of the Congress’s intentions are not completely unfounded. Many parties in the Opposition camp are either those with origins in anti-Congress politics of the pre-1990s (Janata family) or those who broke away from the mothership (Trinamool Congress or Nationalist Congress Party). The Congress will definitely try to exploit Gandhi’s (possibly brief) moment in the sun after his disqualification and return to Parliament, and if the party performs reasonably well in the assembly elections scheduled later this year, expect more consternation. Even during the no-confidence move, some reports suggested discord within INDIA after the Congress filed the notice on its own, before Kharge reached out to Opposition leaders. Gandhi will have to make serious efforts to bridge this trust deficit. The test of their resolve is not the no-confidence vote, but impending seat-sharing talks, decisions on the convenor of the alliance, and the possibility of a leadership face for the 2024 polls.

The third challenge is to chart a revival path for the Congress. Ultimately, the success of INDIA will hinge on the Congress. The party has decided that its route to revival lies in a pre-election coalition, which means it has to let go of its ambitions in states where it is weak – Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. It may also be forced to play second fiddle in states such as Delhi and Punjab. Therefore, its fortunes will hinge on states where it is in direct contest with the BJP such as Assam, Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka.

In the last two Lok Sabha elections, the BJP outperformed the Congress in these states. In 2014, both parties were in head-to-head contest in 189 seats. The BJP won 166, with a strike rate of 88%. In 2019, there were 192 such seats, and the BJP won 176, with a strike rate of 92%. The Congress’s victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh just six months before the 2019 polls made no difference. If the Congress hopes to improve its performance in these seats, it needs to diagnose the reasons for its defeat.

A lot will hinge on the upcoming polls in the heartland and Telangana. If the party performs well, there will be a clamour for Gandhi to take on a key role. There are also going to be suggestions that Gandhi should not fall into the BJP’s trap and make 2024 a direct contest between him and Modi. Recent electoral records will be cited to back this claim.

But leaders are not prisoners of the past, they are driven by strong instincts and emotions. The road to 2024, in some ways, will be shaped by how Gandhi and the Congress assess emerging political trends and their consequent actions. It is a tall order as options for a party in decline are often limited, but the competitive nature of Indian elections also presents possibilities for new alignments to emerge.

Rahul Verma is Fellow, Centre for Policy Research (CPR). The views expressed are personal.