BJP remains a dominant force in the North-East
Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya are border states. That is why strong and stable democratic governments are required in these states. It is a relief that the elections in February 2023 will serve as milestone moments in this direction.
Let us begin with Tripura. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance formed the government there with a more than two-thirds majority five years ago, ending the Left’s 25-year reign. Only then did political analysts predict that the saffron party would make significant advances in the North-East. The election results last week confirmed this. Needless to add, the BJP has retained its majority in Tripura by winning 32 seats. There, it had to fight the CPI(M)’s old cadre, and the Congress was also trying to make a comeback.
Meanwhile, Tripura state Congress president Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barm established a regional party called the Tipra Motha Party. Talking about regional language, culture, and faith, this party now has the distinction of being the second-largest party, having won 13 seats in its maiden election. Certainly, the saffron party’s route was not simple, but does the trio of Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and JP Nadda undertake easy tasks?
Nagaland’s ruling alliance, like Tripura’s, made a dramatic comeback, gaining 37 of 60 seats. This coalition includes the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party and the BJP. To undermine the BJP’s position, the opposition brought up the controversial beef consumption issue to loud cheers. The church, which wields considerable influence in Nagaland politics, urged people to boycott communal parties. But the BJP played its cards wisely. Its leaders stated unequivocally at the outset that they have no issue with anyone eating beef. “While in Rome, do as the Romans do” policy has proven beneficial first in Goa and now in Nagaland. The Opposition may accuse the BJP of applying a double standard, but politics is about power, and after all, the results benefit the saffron party.
The Congress did not receive a single seat in Nagaland. The same thing happened in Tripura the last time. There, with the support of the Left, the country’s oldest party was able to win only three seats this time. Is this sufficient? We’ll talk about it later. Now, let’s discuss Meghalaya. Except for the first assembly elections in this beautiful state, no party has ever been able to secure a majority on its own. This time, history repeated itself, as Conrad Sangma’s ruling National People’s Party fell only five seats short of the magic figure. It did, however, obtain a total of 26 seats. It now has the support of the BJP to form a government. Sangma has experience leading a coalition government. This experience will come in helpful now.
The Congress, which had won the 21 seats the last time, settled for only five. The outcomes of these three northeastern states are cause for concern for the country’s oldest political party. Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland elect five Lok Sabha members and three Rajya Sabha members. The Trinamool Congress has demonstrated its strength by gaining five seats equal to the Congress in Meghalaya. In addition to the BJP, it has now arrived here to loot the vote base that is slipping out of hand. This will convey a message to Congress supporters that our high command has less fighting ability than others. As a result, the possibility of fractures in the party may grow, as does the ‘bargaining’ of regional parties for the 2024 elections.
On the contrary, the BJP has demonstrated its seriousness for 2024 by having an impact on the North-East. The BJP previously won all the Lok Sabha seats in 10 states and Union Territories. It also won a considerable number of states, including Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal. With the collapse of the National Democratic Alliance and the emergence of Mamata Banerjee, the ruling coalition in Delhi appears to be facing a difficult battle in Maharashtra and Bihar. The byelections held in three states have confirmed this. After several years, the Congress has finally won the Kasba Peth seat in Maharashtra. It has also been successful in opening an account in West Bengal, and it has won a byelection in Tamil Nadu. On the other hand, the BJP and its allies won three byelections in Maharashtra, Arunachal Pradesh, and Jharkhand, reflecting the mood in these states.
The BJP’s leadership recognises this and has turned to the North-East to compensate. Six of the seven sister states are now ruled by the BJP or its coalition. This entire region elects 24 Lok Sabha members.
Apart from this electoral triumph and defeat, we need to take a fresh look at the North-East. Separatists have been a nuisance in all of these states for years. Now that the peace has been restored, many risks still remain. These are bordering states, with nations such as Bangladesh, Burma, and China across the border. That is why strong and stable democratic governments are required in these states. It is a relief that the elections in February 2023 will serve as milestone moments in this direction.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief of Hindustan
The views expressed are personal
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