Crisis of over-confidence corrodes BJP’s discipline
Has the BJP’s talisman — its discipline — started to fray with the party failing to achieve the expected victory at the general election?
Something is brewing within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). If it is a Union minister whose utterances spark a frenzy of debates at one time, it is a deputy chief minister whose statement grabs media attention at another. Has the BJP’s talisman — its discipline — started to fray with the party failing to achieve the expected victory at the general election?
The party needs serious brainstorming, but the BJP brass is too busy mud-slinging. Remember the Kalyan Singh saga when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister (PM)? The BJP received a drubbing in Uttar Pradesh (UP) in the general election of 1999 after Singh’s differences with Vajpayee surfaced.
Soon, Singh was replaced as chief minister of the state. The party lost UP sometime after the assembly election in 2002 and returned to power only 15 years later. It was also out of power at the Centre for 10 years. Since 2017, the BJP’s Yogi Adityanath has been the state’s chief minister. The party retained power in the assembly elections in 2022, rallying behind Adityanath. Against this backdrop, the BJP believed it would win at least 75 seats in the general elections in the state. But it did not. Why?
The following account from Robertsganj parliamentary constituency in UP may help find an answer. Just ahead of the election, as I was travelling on the forested Renukoot-Varanasi route, I met a bunch of tribal women goatherds near Hathi Nala. I struck up a conversation with them and asked them to list the changes they had seen over the past 10 years due to the state government’s actions. They said they had received piped water connections at their homes. On the question of who these women planned to vote for, they said it was “the flower,” referring to the lotus symbol of the BJP. When asked whether they knew who the country’s Prime Minister was, one of them pointed to a picture of Narendra Modi printed on a newspaper I was holding. But here came the catch. A candidate from Apna Dal, an NDA ally, was contesting the election in their constituency on the cup-and-saucer symbol. How would these uneducated women have found the flower if they searched for it on the EVM? Did these women return feeling let down by the EVMs at the election? Probably yes, as Rinki Kole, the NDA candidate, was defeated by more than 125,000 votes.
The women had also told me that no one had canvassed them for votes, and there were rumours that Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh members and party workers had geared down election campaigning efforts. A strong organisation can be undermined by the lethargy of overconfidence and blind dependence on one leader. The BJP suffered this outcome.
Here’s another story from central India, where I met a BJP candidate. “Bhai Sahab, I have to just break the record of the previous candidate,” he told me. I asked him what made him so confident of a victory. “Modi ji’s ‘craze’ is such that even you will win the election if you are placed in my position,” he replied. There is no room for slumber like this in politics. The election results have given the BJP an opportunity to correct its mistakes. It has the means, the time, and a capable leadership to do so.
The party will need to prevent its chinks from showing, and it also needs to lift the morale of its workers. In the past decade, a large number of new members joined the BJP, but allegations of corruption cloud the reputation of many. They still hold key positions, nurturing the notion that joining the BJP was the sole option for those opposing the party to avoid action from central investigating agencies. It is true that some from other parties have contributed to the BJP’s victory, but the gamble has backfired. The recent by-elections to 13 assembly seats offer evidence. The BJP won only two of these seats. Nearly everyone who had switched sides was defeated. Workers’ perception that outsiders were snatching their rights is a key factor contributing to their indifference. Also, the BJP will need to improve how it communicates its message.
The party did not receive the expected results as it became mired in the debate over the Constitution. Despite repeated denials by senior leaders, this narrative could not be effectively countered. And lastly, the most crucial factor. Without doubt, PM Narendra Modi remains the nation’s most popular leader, and the BJP has accomplished much over the past 10 years in terms of public welfare works.
The presence of a popular leader and these achievements are adequate to handle this wobble. However, the party needs to put a stop on its gabby leaders and sharpen its message.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan.
The views expressed are personal
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