Don’t write off the West. Kabul may signal its revival

With its evacuation operations centred on Kabul, the US has positioned itself as the leader of the West. There are signs of a reviving West under a Biden-led US. A bloc of states that can mount such a response is a formidable force. Beijing must be watching. And the Kabul setback notwithstanding, New Delhi has a reason to feel pleased

What does its hurried exit from Afghanistan mean for the West?

US Air Force loadmasters and pilots assigned to the 816th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron load people being evacuated from Afghanistan onto a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, Afghanistan. (AP)

There is little doubt that the United States (US) misread the strategic and political situation on the ground, anticipating neither the inglorious melting away of the Ashraf Ghani-led regime nor the way the Taliban struck deals across the country to capture power with little bloodshed within days.

Criticism of the endgame has come from within the West. The United Kingdom (UK)’s defence secretary, Ben Wallace, choked up over the prospect of some Afghans who helped the West not being able to get out of the country. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel thought the developments to be “bitter, dramatic and terrifying”, and was critical of the “domestic political reasons” for which the US stood firm on the withdrawal decision. Armin Laschet, her potential successor, called the withdrawal the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s “biggest debacle” ever. President Joe Biden has suffered a clear fall in reputation and popularity.

Failure appears to be written all over — moral, intelligence, political, military and, indeed, of the West-led nation-building effort that spanned two decades. To detractors in Russia, China and the Muslim world, it is the strongest evidence of the West’s decline as a global power. They rejoice as the West scrambles to meet the August 31 deadline.

While this is undoubtedly a setback for the West, it is likely to be a temporary one. Far from portending its decline, the withdrawal and the ensuing crisis indicate the West’s resurrection. How?

First, the American withdrawal completes a course correction initiated during the Barack Obama administration. Obama realised early that American occupation of Muslim societies in Iraq and Afghanistan was strategically counterproductive and politically unwise. It was giving fodder to radical Islamists, who justified terrorism by pointing to the occupation of their lands and imposition of an alien culture and values on their societies. Moreover, political modernisation imposed from above was generating resentment rather than appreciation.

Obama oversaw the withdrawal of American forces in Iraq and set in motion a similar process for Afghanistan. The Iraq withdrawal led to the swift and nasty rise of Islamic State across Syria and Iraq in 2014, leading to re-deployment of western military forces and hardware. Iraq was territorially secured by 2017.

Afghanistan did not face a similar security vulnerability as the Taliban were territorial nationalists who sought to oust an occupying force rather than destroy their own country to create a universal Caliphate. This difference was crucial as it enabled President Donald Trump to continue the policy of disengagement and strike a deal with the Taliban in 2020. Biden has led the policy to its conclusion.

The withdrawal from Afghanistan thus marks an end to America’s messianic liberalism in the Muslim world that was launched in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. Messianic liberalism has encouraged a violent culture clash of the western and Muslim worlds, which Obama indirectly acknowledged in his reconciliatory speech given at Cairo University in June 2009. As it disengages from Afghanistan, the West also significantly liberates itself from the charge that it interferes in Muslim affairs and is an enemy of Islam. It is increasingly for Muslim societies to determine their present and future. This should lessen the discord between two global cultural forces and free up western resources and attention for other issues.

Second, with its evacuation operations centred on Kabul, the US has positioned itself as the leader of the West. No other western country possessed the military and logistical power necessary to ensure the scale of the humanitarian airlift being undertaken. It is either directly evacuating or securing the evacuation of western, Afghan and non-western nationals. Seizing the moment, Biden has called it one of the largest and most difficult airlifts in history. Western and partner countries have tied their evacuation goals to the US presence in Kabul.

Third, western capitals have shown a cohesion not seen in recent years. At the G7 meeting held on August 24, they decided on a common approach to dealing with the Taliban. UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson emphasised the considerable political, diplomatic, and economic leverage the group possessed, which it would use to ensure safe passage for Afghans seeking to escape.

Fourth, the US has also brought its non-western partners on board. A majority of around 25 countries participating in processing Afghan nationals coming out of Kabul are from Asia, Africa and South America.

Finally, while there is no clarity on the number of Afghans who have been, or will eventually be, able to move out, or how many the western countries would eventually resettle, the flight is significant. Indeed, it is significant enough for the Taliban to accuse the West of poaching the country’s skilled human resource and prevent Afghans from accessing the airport. At the same time, the Taliban are clearly seeking to work the institutions and infrastructure built by the occupying forces. If the West could enable the exit of even a majority of those seeking to flee the country, it will salvage a fair bit of the Afghan nation that it helped build.

All this shows high levels of coordination and multilateralism among western powers and their partners. This was highly unlikely to have been achieved had Trump been in power. We are witnessing signs of a reviving West under a Biden-led US. A bloc of states that can mount such a response is a formidable force. Beijing must be watching. And the Kabul setback notwithstanding, New Delhi has a reason to feel pleased.

Atul Mishra teaches international relations at Shiv Nadar University, Delhi-NCR and is the author of The Sovereign Lives of India and Pakistan

The views expressed are personal