Macron scripts a narrow win on pension reform, but jury on legacy still out
Macron may have scripted his political survival for now, but his quest for legacy will be decided by the reaction from the streets, which remains unpredictable
It is facetiously said that the French love taking to the streets to protest once the weather becomes clement. But the protests that have now broken out in France are serious because they concern an existential question for the average citizen: What is the right age to retire?
It is well-known that the French have the best social security system in Europe. Health care is excellent and largely free. University education is also free (in publicly funded institutions) and is, in fact, a right. And once a person retires, her pension is generous, even by western standards. There is, however, one area where the French are decidedly different: People retire earlier than other Europeans. So, an average French person can expect to retire at 62, the statutory minimum age for retirement. Almost everywhere else in Europe, the corresponding age is 65.
There are historical and cultural reasons for this. The French believe in the concept of “solidarity” and the related notion of the welfare State. In 1981, socialist president Francois Mitterrand reduced the retirement age in France from 65 to 60, along with other benefits like a five-week annual paid holiday and a shift to a 39-hour work week. It should also be clear from the above that the French put a premium on work-life balance.
But the cost of maintaining this pension system has become unsustainable. There are three ways for the State to deal with this problem. One, increase public debt by borrowing more money. This is, however, not recommended because France has one of the highest levels of public debt at over $3 trillion. The second option is to increase taxes to meet the rising pension bill. But increased taxes will lead to a gilets jaune kind of movement France saw a few years ago. Moreover, taxing only the rich is challenging to execute when you want more private investment and arrest capital flight. That leaves France only with one realistic option, namely, increasing the retirement age to align it with other European countries.
This is not an unreasonable ask since the French, like other Europeans, now live longer and healthier lives. Moreover, when he was re-elected in 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron made it clear in his manifesto that he would raise the retirement age. This is also his second and last term as president. Viewed from this perspective, Macron wants the pension reform to be his legacy — a huge one, since every president before him in the last 20 years tried to do this, and failed.
The problem for Macron was that he remained dependent on other like-minded political parties for support in parliament. But what happened in the lower house on March 16 was extraordinary. In the normal course of things, the bill increasing the retirement age from 62 to 64 should have been voted upon by the lower house, having already been approved by the upper house. But, instead, there were scenes of uproar with the French prime minister Élisabeth Borne not allowed to introduce the bill. The ensuing pandemonium prompted Macron to resort to the nuclear option in theFrench parliamentary lexicon — Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the government to bypass parliament and push a bill through without a vote.
This move by Macron’s government was legal and constitutional, but it had political consequences. On March 20, he defeated a no-confidence motion by just nine votes. With this the pension bill becomes law. There is only one legal course available for the opposition parties: Appeal to the Constitutional Council to overturn parts of the bill. This is a long shot, but France these days is full of surprises.
Macron may have scripted his political survival for now, but his quest for a legacy will be decided by the reaction from the streets, which remains unpredictable. Charles de Gaulle is once said to have complained about the difficulty of governing a country with 246 varieties of cheese. The trouble for Macron is that France today has more than 1,000.
Mohan Kumar is a former Indian ambassador to France and dean/professor, OP Jindal Global University The views expressed are personal