One-upmanship is the name of the game in national politics now

Welcome to the realm of political speculation and twists in the tale.

The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance’s (INDIA) meeting in Mumbai last week ended with promises to fight and win elections together. At the meeting, a 14-member coordination committee, comprising representatives from all main parties, was constituted. Top leaders such as Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, and Lalu Yadav are not in the committee. Sharad Pawar and MK Stalin are the only political bigwigs included in the committee. Earlier, there was a huge dispute on whether Nitish Kumar would be the convener of this committee, but Lalu put an end to this by announcing that more than one convener may be nominated. What does all this mean? Will the coordination committee be reorganised or re-formed in the future?

Opposition leaders during the INDIA meet, in Mumbai on Friday. (PTI)

Rahul Gandhi told journalists that the individuals assembled at the meeting represented 60% of the country’s population. Other speakers said similar things. But the adage holds true: Mathematics alone does not work in elections. What matters most is how much space you get from voters.

I’ve said it before and say it again: Whatever INDIA needs to do, it needs to do it swiftly.

The news of the INDIA meeting was on television the whole day. By evening, though, word came that a special session of Parliament was scheduled from September 18 to 22. No one knew about such a session until the afternoon, so why the quick decision? Speculation was rife, and the development took some attention away from the INDIA meeting news.

What is the goal of this impromptu session? There are as many theories as there are minds. One theory was that all the fuss was about kick-starting proceedings from the new Parliament building on Ganesh Chaturthi. But what is the point of holding a five-day session if that was indeed the case? Another theory is that the Opposition’s attacks can be blunted by bringing forward the women’s reservation bill in a hurry. It was also speculated that the government was aiming to pave the way for “One Nation, One Election”, what with five states going to polls in the next six months. If the Lok Sabha elections are also held during this time, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may benefit.

This notion is reinforced by the formation of a committee led by former president Ram Nath Kovind to look into the feasibility of One Nation, One Election. This committee will solicit feedback from the public and will also consider legal issues.

As we all know, Mamata, Nitish, and other leaders of INDIA have already expressed their concerns. They alleged that the Prime Minister (PM) was acting in this manner out of fear of the new alliance. According to the most recent India Today and C-Voter polls, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will receive 43% of votes, while INDIA will receive 41%. According to the survey, 44% of people will vote for the BJP solely to see PM Modi take the oath for the third time. It means Modi is the BJP’s sole powerhouse. Despite his widespread popularity, satraps such as Mamata, Nitish, Lalu, Uddhav, Pawar, and Stalin may challenge his saffron Ashwamedha.

Another question emerges here. Will the BJP and its partners want to fight an election before the Ram temple is dedicated?

Many critics do not believe it is impossible. Reason? Almost all surveys place the PM’s popularity between 50 and 55%. Similarly, many foreign research organisations have named him one of the world’s most popular leaders. Take a peek at the numbers so far. Every study has several meanings, and that’s why I value both arithmetic and the bonds with the voters.

The BJP’s leaders believe that the upcoming G20 summit will boost the PM’s image even further. The statistics for growth rates of the economy are also in their favour. This is why, on Independence Day from the ramparts of the Red Fort, PM Modi assured the nation that, in his third term, India will become the world’s third superpower. He is clear that he wishes to sail with renewed hopes for a new India. If the concept of “One Nation, One Election” can be enhanced by the introduction of a bill in Parliament, it can also be pushed as a step towards development and the reduction of wasteful spending. Some Opposition parties have been backing this notion.

Will this lead to a fracture in the INDIA camp? Even if it does not, the Opposition will still be forced to articulate new arguments. We’ll have to wait a fortnight to find out what happens at the next session of Parliament, but the game of politics has reached a new level of excitement. Welcome to the realm of political speculation and twists in the tale.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. The views expressed are personal