The many meanings of Modi’s Ukraine visit
Potential reputational gains for India from even a modest initiative to lessen the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war far outweigh those from any other conflict
Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s visits to Russia a little over a month ago and Ukraine just last week — a rare diplomatic move by any global leader — carry several significant messages. There is a message about the costs of war, a rising power’s search for a global role at a time when international institutions or other major powers are unable to undertake peace-making efforts, a message to Moscow that its growing relationship with China comes with a cost, and to Ukraine that patience is a virtue in diplomacy.
But let’s first deal with the question on everyone’s mind: Can India bring the two adversaries to the negotiating table? Negotiating an end to the war hinges on Russia, Ukraine, the United States (US), and the European Union (EU) to a lesser extent. At the moment, none of them are inclined to talk peace, ceasefire or war termination. Russia has done reasonably well in the war, despite huge human losses, and sees no reason to give up anything it has captured unless there are major battlefield losses in the future. Ukraine still has considerable international support for its war efforts and is putting up a good fight before the winter sets in. It seeks to use any gains it makes now as leverage on the negotiating table. After all, Ukraine can’t get on the negotiating table what it can’t on the battlefield.
The US would be busy with its domestic affairs at least until early 2025. The EU, increasingly weary of a prolonged conflict and faced with its own insecurity, is reluctant to be seen as forcing Kyiv to the negotiating table.
This is where India comes in. As one of the few global leaders who has personally engaged with both Russia and Ukraine, PM Modi’s visit could lay the groundwork for dialogue on war management mechanisms and confidence-building measures between the two nations — after all, someone must start talking to both sides with as little prejudice as possible
An important element in PM Modi’s visit to Kyiv is its timing. Not only does it follow closely on the heels of his visit to Moscow, but it comes at an important juncture in the ongoing war itself. The war appears to have reached a situation where respective national positions are deeply entrenched making the conflict more intractable in the days ahead. The visit comes at a time when the Swiss peace summit in June failed to decisively impact the war, European nations are increasingly worried about the rising costs associated with their support for the war, and the US is preoccupied with its domestic politics. This context presents an opportunity — if the Indian establishment chooses to pursue it — to initiate a conversation about bringing the two parties to the negotiation table. With a careful diplomatic approach and thoughtful consultations on either side of the divide, India could play a small, though not insignificant, role in that process. You could read it as a middle power trying to punch above its weight, or as a message to like-minded Global South countries that they too are stakeholders in the international order.
Non-alignment, strategic autonomy, and balancing opposing sides in world politics are dismissed as lazy, useless and inconsequential strategies. So, the question is whether there is a strategy behind balancing great powers during times of systemic competition. Consider this: If Modi had outrightly condemned Russia, his visit to Moscow would have been unlikely. Similarly, had he openly sided with Russia like China, his visit to Kyiv would have been unlikely too. New Delhi’s ability to engage both sides in the conflict is therefore a product of its balanced approach, which sought to keep its doors open with all key players. So, the message from Modi’s visit to Kyiv is also that the either-or strategy doesn’t always work in international politics.
Yet another takeaway from this visit is the broader Indian efforts at a careful balance of power. There are several pieces to the balance of power puzzle here. For one, the visit is about balancing a declining power (Russia) with a power (Ukraine) that is becoming integral to the strategic calculations of India’s close partners (Europeans and the US). And yet, apart from the fact that Ukraine is important to India primarily because of its growing importance for Europe, Ukraine itself is unlikely to capture much attention in India’s grand strategy anytime soon.
There is also a China angle to Modi’s visit to Kyiv. In it, there is a message for Moscow that its growing relationship with China comes at a cost. His visits to Moscow and now Kyiv are a reminder to the western nations to get real about their China policy: How can you ask India to take sides sacrificing its security interests when your own commercial interests prevent you from being tough on China?
If you dig deeper, you will realise that Modi’s trip is also about a desire to play a global role — a goal that isn’t new in Indian history. It has long argued for a place at the high table of international politics, but so far denied to it. New Delhi compensates for its absence at institutional high tables like the UNSC by engaging in multiple influential minilaterals such as Quad and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. These groups with contrasting memberships allow the country to create a niche space for itself outside the traditional frameworks of the post-war world order.
In New Delhi’s calculus, then, while there are plenty of conflicts around the world including closer home as well as at home, the potential reputational gains for India from even a modest initiative to lessen the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war far outweigh those from any other conflict.
If New Delhi’s foreign policy establishment had a checklist of strategic goals and messages, Modi’s visit to Kyiv may have checked many of those boxes.
Happymon Jacob teaches India’s foreign policy at JNU and is the founder of the Council for Strategic and Defence Research. The views expressed are personal
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