The turmoil in Bangladesh and its implications for India

India must realise the new ground realities and look beyond the previous dispensation in order to ensure that a friendly neighbour continues to remain friendly.

Sheikh Hasina, who ruled Bangladesh for over one-third of the time since the country’s independence, was compelled to abdicate and leave the country on August 5.

People gather around the residence of Bangladeshi prime minister in Dhaka(HT_PRINT)

Hasina is presently in India and is said to be seeking asylum in the UK. Her UK visa, according to reports, has been cancelled and she has been asked to apply for asylum from the safety of a third country as per the procedure said to be in vogue in the UK.

Hasina was in power for 20 years with the last 15 uninterrupted. With her in power, the eastern borders of India were secure and stable. However, the vacuum created by Hasina’s departure has led to turmoil and uncertainty in Bangladesh with both short and long-term security implications for India. The rapidly developing situation in Bangladesh has to be tracked closely and analysed in real-time.

India’s concerns

The first and foremost short-term security implication is the threat of people trying to enter India through the borders in order to escape the widespread violence in the country, directed especially against the Awami League workers who were involved in atrocities against student protesters.

This coupled with the fact that 209 companies of Bangladesh Border Guards (BGB) are said to have been withdrawn for law and order duties, may lead to a spurt in border crimes besides the influx of illegal immigrants into India. The Border Security Force (BSF) has to be on high alert to guard the 4000 km long border — a large portion of which passes through difficult remote terrain and riverine areas — in order to prevent such eventualities.

Hasina’s long rule failed to reign in radical organisations like the banned Jamaat. which is closely aligned with the main opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Islami Andolan Bangladesh led by Rezaul Karim popularly known as Charmonai Peer and Hefazate – e – Islam because she was not charry of using influence of these organisations for narrow political gains.

Her removal from the scene and the closeness of these organisations to the opposition BNP is likely to work against the interests of India and may also threaten Hindu minorities there. The agitations in Bangladesh may also have a linkage with the efforts of these groups to enhance their footprints by exploiting the situation.

Needless to say, the strengthening of these radical groups is also likely to lead to fresh attempts to link up with the Islamic State. Their emergence must therefore be watched closely and all actions taken to prevent them from extending their footprint in India.

The developments in Bangladesh are also a security concern for India’s northeast. With Manipur on the boil and the Kuki demand for a separate administrative area for them, the portends for the demand being expanded for a Kuki – Mizo – Chin Christian nation.

Northeast connectivity

The removal of Hasina from the scene also creates uncertainty over the MoU signed in June this year for rail transit through Bangladesh to enhance connectivity with northeastern states. The Indian government must pursue the implementation of this treaty with vigour as it is to the mutual benefit of both countries. Bangladesh too benefits from this because of the provision for the use of the Indian Rail network by them for trade and transit with Nepal and Bhutan. India must, however, obtain clarity on the fine print of the MOU about the use of this transit facility in case of a show down with China.

The road ahead

The picture of who is in control of governance in Bangladesh is unclear. With the Bangladeshi army having taken over from Hasina but refusing to act against violent mobs doesn’t portend well. The hesitance of the army to act against violent protesters is attributed to dissensions within the armed forces between groups, which are aligned for or against Hasina. The army is also eager not to be seen as a perpetrator of violence against civilians because it could have implications on Dhaka’s contribution to UN peace keeping efforts, a major foreign exchange earner for the country.

Attempts are on to put an interim Government in place and Nobel Laureate Mohammad Yunus has accepted the invitation to head the temporary arrangement but how the situation will evolve in the aftermath is not yet clear.

Hasina’s 15-year rule was not very popular. The elections held on January 24, which brought her back to power, were widely perceived to be unfair with the BNP having boycotted them and voting percentage being as low as 40% (half of 2019).

Hasina was also perceived to be an autocrat and close to the Indian establishment. New Delhi on its part appears to have put the proverbial “all eggs in the same basket”. A prudent foreign policy demands that we maintain cordial relations with the entire spectrum of political dispensations of a country. However, India failed to do so.

Given the perception that Hasina was close to New Delhi, anti-India sentiments have been running high in Bangladesh. That’s ominous for the business interests of several Indian companies operating in the country.

India must realise the new ground realities and look beyond the previous dispensation in order to ensure that a friendly neighbour continues to remain friendly. This will need a huge effort at diplomatic levels as anti-Indian sentiments run high among the opposition and common people. Therefore, unlike in the past, it needs to ensure that it engages with all political parties and desists from giving the impression that it is interfering in their internal affairs. This also is important in order to wean away Bangladesh from the Chinese influence which has been growing of late.

Sanjiv Krishan Sood retired as Additional Director General, Border Security Forces BSF. The views expressed are personal