The twists and turns of Nepali politics

The post-poll coalition that formed the government had little resemblance to the pre-poll alliance. A new force faces an existential crisis but is fighting back. And two major battles lie ahead

The turn of events since Nepal’s November 20 general election last year is a litany of unexpected tales. And lately, the media — the storyteller — itself has been a character in the tale. First, a background on the political turns in a rapidly evolving landscape.

After the election, the Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda took just about everyone by surprise when he decided to desert the ruling coalition. (Reuters)

Sher Bahadur Deuba, who led the five-party ruling coalition to a majority, was expected to continue as prime minister. After all, his party, the centrist Nepali Congress (NC), had emerged as the largest party in a deeply hung parliament with 89 seats, replacing the KP Sharma Oli-led Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist, or the CPN-UML, as the largest party in the 275-member House of Representatives. NC’s coalition partner, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), had finished a distant third, securing only 32 seats.

As the electorate swung resolutely to the Right, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) made strong political inroads; it has championed the restoration of constitutional monarchy and Nepal as a Hindu state. But the biggest surprise was the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), registered with the Election Commission only on July 1, with elections just around the corner.

Prachanda’s turn

After the election, the Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda took just about everyone by surprise when he decided to desert the ruling coalition, which had contested as a joint front. Instead, he joined forces with a fellow communist party, CPN-UML, in a last-minute deal on December 25.

The reason was simple, even if unexpected. The CPN-UML agreed to offer Dahal premiership on a platter, unlike the Nepali Congress which argued that it had a legitimate claim to head the government. For the UML, this was an opportunity to break the NC-Maoist alliance, seek powerful positions in both the central government and return to power in provinces, and expect the office of the presidency and speaker. The RPP and RSP backed the new government.

More surprises were in store. In a confidence vote two weeks later, the new PM Prachanda received near-unanimous support – with 268 votes in favour and only two against. The NC also joined the yes contingent, perhaps hoping to sow a divide between Prachanda and Oli and make a bid for the presidency in subsequent months. In a deeply fractured Parliament, political stars seemed aligned for everyone — the Left, the centre and the Right.

The curious case of Rabi Lamichhane

But in the past two months, even as the older political actors have made and unmade coalitions, Nepal’s public sphere has been gripped by the actions of the leader of the brand-new RSP, Rabi Lamichhane. In the new government, merely six months after his party was formed, he became not just the Deputy Prime Minister but also took over the all-powerful Home Ministry. This, despite a large section of public warning that it was an unwise move.

Rabi (as he is popularly called) was facing a high-stakes hearing at the Supreme Court for allegedly holding dual citizenship – as a Nepali and American, a clear legal breach. The Supreme Court soon ruled that he had not taken the requisite steps to reobtain his Nepali citizenship. He lost his status as a lawmaker, party chief and Home Minister all at once. He had held the high office for only 32 days.

Yet RSP and Rabi’s rise has been nothing short of meteoric. It is the fourth-largest party in Parliament and the third-largest in the ruling coalition. It won unexpected races against political heavyweights, including in Kathmandu Valley where a 32-year-old medical doctor Toshima Karki defeated a Maoist veteran and a sitting minister, and a 27-year-old lawyer Sobita Gautam surprised a former Speaker of the House. Neither of the RSP candidates, both women, had any background in party politics. Rabi, 48, a former TV anchor, registered the biggest win in the 2022 parliamentary race, beating his closest rival by more than 34,000 votes.

Though no longer a high-profile minister or an MP, Rabi continues to be in the political limelight. He managed to get his citizenship in quick time and demanded he be awarded the home ministry back. But the political leadership, once embarrassed, resisted, for Rabi continued to face legal challenges and media scrutiny.

But Rabi went on the offensive. He held a controversial press conference last week, launching an all-out attack against the media. His charges were grievous. That the media’s endless assault on him had influenced the court against him, that the media holds both the judiciary and party leaders to ransom, and that media houses had helped establish their owners while abandoning issues of public concern.

As a host of a TV show, Rabi anchored a popular programme, Sidhakura Janata Sanga (Straight Talk with the People), which gained him a huge following as he took on the mighty in his high-octane performance. Last Sunday, he donned his old avatar. In the hour-and-a-half-long non-stop salvo against the press, addressed to a packed house, he lambasted the media over its own “conflict of interest”, a major charge labelled by the media against him after he became the Home Minister. The quick role reversal didn’t go unnoticed.

In the past week, close to half a million viewers have watched Rabi’s press conference on YouTube and tens of thousands more on other social media platforms. In that sense, he has delivered a message to the mainstream media (and other public figures) that he has direct access to his constituency.

To many, he had taken recourse to the Donald Trump PR playbook; employ incendiary rhetoric and play victim, checks and balances be damned. To others, he had dared what no one else had before him; offer intimate stories about how the judiciary, party leaders, and just about everyone else in public life fears media assaults, stifling open dialogue and independent institutions. In the process, he deeply polarised public opinion.

That brings us to a core current-day concern that could have bearing on Nepal’s public sphere long term. When social media, without any gatekeepers, dominates the public discourse, it leads to deep silos where political extremism thrives at the cost of a vital middle ground. Rabi, through his tell-all press conference, howsoever flawed, has arguably expanded his constituency among those who are frustrated with the established political parties and unhappy with the mainstream media. He has opened Pandora’s box.

The next battle in Nepali politics

What next? In the short term, everyone has an eye on two important dates. First, on March 9, Nepal elects its new president. It’s open to question whether the two major communist parties in the ruling coalition – PM Prachanda’s CPN (Maoist Centre) and former PM KP Oli’s CPN-UML – will support a single candidate. That was, according to the Kathmandu grapevine, the original deal between the two parties, but since then, the NC, too, has begun hopes of getting its candidate to the highest office of the land. Which way Prachanda turns will be crucial in both determining the outcome of the presidency and the future shape of his own coalition.

Second, on April 23, Chitwan-2 will hold a by-election in which Rabi Lamichhane will contest. Already, his supporters (and some analysts) have declared that he will register an even bigger victory than the one he secured in November last year, though there’s a caveat. He is still not cleared of a second charge — travelling abroad on false documents, a willful disregard of the law. If found guilty, there is still some possibility that Rabi could face a prison sentence and even be ineligible to contest elections. However, if he does contest (but is imprisoned), he could brilliantly play the victim card, and few would dare to fight against him in Chitwan.

Either way, be prepared for chessboard politics to continue in Kathmandu as the old forces align and realign, new forces increasingly begin to resemble the old, and citizens watch the political theatre with growing frustration.

Akhilesh Upadhyay is a senior research fellow at IIDS, a Kathmandu-based think tank.

The views expressed are personal