The war in Ukraine has upended the existing world order
Given the precarious and evolving geo-strategic environment, India has, so far, avoided pitfalls and managed things well
Timelines are a serious matter for academia. The disintegration of the erstwhile Soviet Union in the late 1980s is said to coincide with both the end of the “Cold War” and the beginning of the “unipolar” (American) moment. Similarly, the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2008 is associated with the end of the “unipolar” moment. And the assumption of power by Xi Jinping in China in 2012 is associated with the advent of a muscular and assertive foreign policy, following the country’s meteoric rise. Could it be, therefore, that future historians will look at events that unfolded on February 24 in Ukraine and say that this is when the old world order died?
History does not move in straight lines. Yet, it is hard today to avoid the sentiment of inescapable churn, accompanied by impotence of the existing mechanisms of global governance. Of all these mechanisms, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) stands out for its abysmal failure to discharge its basic responsibility in the matter of Ukraine. After all, the UN member-states have explicitly conferred on the UNSC the “primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security”.
The UN General Assembly (UNGA) has fared slightly better. Representing as it does the court of public opinion, the UNGA in March 2022 overwhelmingly adopted a resolution demanding that Russia immediately end its military operations in Ukraine. The fact that the UNSC failed in its duty and the fact that the UNGA resolution will not make any difference to the situation on the ground, should be reason enough to carry out fundamental reforms to these two principal organs of the UN.
In the circumstances, the principal judicial organ of the UN, namely, the International Court of Justice, appears to have risen to the occasion. After deciding, prima facie, that it has jurisdiction pursuant to the Genocide Convention under which Ukraine filed the case, the ICJ ruled that pending a final decision in the case, Russia must suspend the military operations that it commenced on 24 February 2022 in the territory of Ukraine. One important point worth noting is that both Ukraine and Russia are parties to the Genocide Convention (with neither entering any reservations) and so are obliged to comply with the ruling.
The ICJ also emphasised that the non-appearance of a party (in this case Russia) cannot constitute an obstacle to the indication of provisional measures. The problem is that there is no way of legally enforcing the ICJ ruling that Russia suspend its military operations except for Ukraine to have recourse to the UNSC, but there again, Russia will doubtless exercise its veto. If ever there was a good time to reform the UNSC, it is now.
Where do we go from here? Ironically, China holds most of the cards as to the direction and contours of the emerging world order. China faces a fork in the road. If China decides to throw its weight behind Russia, this will have the inevitable effect of fragmenting the world into two power blocs: One obviously led by China and Russia, and the other led broadly by the West.
India and ASEAN may engage in strategic hedging in the short-term until it becomes unviable in the medium to long term. The other option that China has is this: It implicitly decides to support the Western position, totally out of self-interest, thus endorsing pariah status for Russia. We may then be back to some kind of a G2 system of global governance with the US and China largely cooperating where they wish, but also competing and undermining each other where they can.
Neither of the above two scenarios are likely to be stable in the short-term: Expect many twists and turns with messy outcomes. The Sino-Russian Joint Statement, signed on February 4, is already inflicting costs and circumscribing choices for China. At the time of writing, China is sitting on the fence wanting to have best of both the worlds: Good political and economic ties with the West and a burgeoning strategic relationship with Russia. If China succeeds in getting Putin to call off the war early, it may yet have best of both the worlds. If on the other hand, the war drags on, it is hard to see how China can avoid making what may turn out to be a Hobson’s choice. The next few weeks will tell.
Given the precarious and evolving geo-strategic environment, India has, so far, avoided pitfalls and managed things well. Delhi has already seen a steady stream of foreign visitors: Japanese PM Fumio Kishida, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi (who arrived on March 25), and US under-secretary, Victoria Nuland. All this may be construed as indicative of the potential strategic clout that India possesses, but it is also an indication of the serious pulls and pressures that we will be subjected to by our friends and partners.
Mohan Kumar is dean/professor, OP Jindal Global University, and former Indian ambassador to France.
The views expressed are personal