Trump 2.0 is also an opportunity for India
The US president’s disruptive politics will reshape the world order. New Delhi must seize the moment
Much of the pessimism about the potential implications of Donald Trump’s second term for the international order may be exaggerated. For those of us studying international relations through the lens of history and how States tend to behave, the foreign policy of the newly inaugurated Trump presidency feels like a déjà vu moment. International politics is an anarchic place. Powerful States attempt to set the terms, and the less powerful ones strategise their moves. This framing is important to make sense of not just the world according to President Trump but also Indo-United States (US) relations.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the US led to several significant outcomes, as reflected in the extensive 36-para joint statement. However, not all the developments are positive. In that sense, this visit tells us that Indo-US relations will see many ups and downs in the next four years.
That said, it is important to highlight points: One, isolating America’s relations with India from the broader context of Trump’s foreign policy will be an analytical mistake. Two, the crisis in world politics today resulting from Trumpian disruption offers an opportunity to realise India’s global ambitions.
If so, what does Trump’s month-long presidency tell us about his potential impact on international politics? This context is crucial for assessing Modi’s recent visit to the US and for speculating about the future of Indo-US relations.
For one, it is abundantly clear by now that tariffs will be a significant focus of Trump’s agenda moving forward, impacting friends and foes alike. Secondly, Trump appears determined to increase exports while reducing imports into the US. He is likely to insist that India purchases American energy and weapons, both of which are more expensive than alternatives. Thirdly, in terms of his view of the world, he is unlikely to pursue new wars and is most likely to end the wars in Gaza and in Ukraine. Finally, Trump is also likely to disregard established norms of international politics thereby, potentially curbing the liberal internationalist impulse in both Europe and America, specifically restraining European normative and regulatory approaches to democracy, human rights, trade, climate, and labour.
If these features persist over the long term under Trump’s foreign policy, it will be crucial to view Indo-US relations as a subset of his worldview. In other words, while the bipartisan consensus in the US and the American establishment’s positive view of India form a solid foundation for Indo-US relations, Trump’s views will have a defining impact on that dynamic.
India’s ability to rely on the traditional bipartisan American consensus to navigate the “Trump factor” in US relations will be somewhat limited. Therefore, Indian decision-makers will need to carefully calibrate and manage the deeper relationship India has built with the US to absorb the shocks from Trumpian disruption while being prepared for shocks and surprises. Ultimately, the future trajectory of Indo-US relations will hinge on how both Indian and American establishments navigate the relationship with care and diplomacy. We are in uncharted waters, which will test the foundations of the relationship that India and the US have built over the past two-and-a-half decades.
While India will need to accommodate some of Trump’s demands, it is also essential for India to seek favourable deals from the US. One area to focus on is nuclear reactors. India should push Washington to accept its liability law (or a revised version currently in the works) to facilitate the sale of nuclear reactors. Additionally, India could seek greater concessions regarding technology transfer and export controls -- the US has not been particularly forthcoming in these areas.
Finally, the Trump administration includes several India-friendly officials, including the director of national Intelligence, the secretary of state, and the assistant secretary in charge of South Asia. This presents India with a unique opportunity to work with a sympathetic administration in the US, to create a favourable climate for itself in South Asia and the broader region.
Trump 2.0 and the disruption it brings are not entirely negative from an Indian perspective. This crisis in international politics also brings with it a set of opportunities. For instance, Trump’s pressure on India to lower tariffs could encourage the country to further reform the economy. The US retrenchment from its expansive involvement in world politics and its disinterest in global governance present India with an opportunity to engage in creating focused minilaterals for regional and global governance and to initiate conversations with other great powers about what the future world order should look like. Just as the end of World War II shaped the current international order, Trumpian disruption could pave the way for a new world order — an outcome New Delhi should welcome. This situation also provides India with a chance to engage in dialogue with European States regarding their respective visions for the future global order. A Europe humbled by America is more likely to listen to the views of non-European powers such as India than ever before.
Happymon Jacob teaches India’s foreign policy at JNU and is editor, INDIA’S WORLD magazine. The views expressed are personal
