Whiff of continuity and a resurgent Opposition
Modi has exhibited unprecedented confidence at home and abroad, but new anxieties are emerging on the internal front.
On 9 July, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Moscow for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The previous day, during an informal conversation with Putin, Modi made two significant statements. First, he said: “I have brought with me the love of 140 crore countrymen.” Second: “Peace talks do not succeed amid bombs, guns, and bullets.” What did Modi mean?
His first statement aimed to tell world leaders that they should not think the mandate his government now has is in any way weaker than what he had enjoyed in his first two terms; and that he still is the all-powerful prime minister of a sovereign nation. Putin acknowledged this sentiment. Now we get to the second statement. Modi used words such as bombs and bullets to signal to the West that India’s foreign policy remains unchanged. Those who feel India should align with the US also got a fitting response.
It’s vital to mention Quad here. This informal, but crucial strategic group has India, the US, Japan, and Australia as its constituents. The US also proposes to expand the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as the grouping celebrates its 75th anniversary. Though India is not a member of NATO, its position as a Quad ally demonstrates its balance of policy.
But I won’t discuss foreign policy here. My objective is to discuss the first month of Modi’s third term. Modi has accomplished and communicated a lot in just one month.
Let’s begin with the creation of the cabinet. Many believed Modi would not be as powerful as in his last tenure, since the BJP no longer has a simple majority in Parliament and would have to accept the demands of his coalition partners while forming the government. There was speculation that the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) would strike a hard bargain. But the Cabinet Committee on Security, or CCS, the most powerful organ of the Union cabinet, has remained exactly as it was. Similarly, the portfolios TDP and JD(U) received were not discussed prior to Cabinet formation, nor is it expected in the future.
There were rumours about who would be the Speaker. The selection of Bhartruhari Mahtab, who joined the BJP after leaving the Biju Janata Dal, as pro-tem speaker was seen as a hint. But Om Birla resumed as Speaker. Birla’s last tenure was controversial. He suspended scores of MPs. Rahul Gandhi and Mahua Moitra were dismissed from the Lok Sabha. By picking him, the BJP showed that its strength remains intact. Later, during the motion of thanks to the presidential address, there was a lot of bluster, but neither the government nor the Speaker of the Lok Sabha tumbled. People saw only one difference between the previous Lok Sabha and this one: The Opposition was more aggressive owing to their better numbers. It is a different matter that the ruling party MPs went to great lengths to respond.
Now let us talk about the BJP. The prime minister and the home minister have held the party in a firm grip. There were rumours that the RSS had issues with it and may intervene this time. But it didn’t. The current BJP national president, Jagat Prakash Nadda, is already on an “extension” and continues to make decisions as party president a fortnight past the end of his tenure on June 30. It is almost inevitable that the party will elect a new president in time. Perhaps this is why he has been assigned to the critical ministry of health. For sure, Modi-Shah’s grip on the party remains strong.
Should we presume that Prime Minister Modi is entirely unchallenged?
Modi has exhibited unprecedented confidence at home and abroad, but new anxieties are emerging on the internal front. This month, the finance minister will present the first budget of the third term of Modi. Will there be an imprint on NDA allies on that? If so, what will happen to economic reforms?
Additionally, the rising attacks on security forces in Jammu and Kashmir have raised concerns. With assembly elections scheduled by September, Delhi needs to make prompt decisions. Meanwhile, the Opposition is vehemently criticising the Agnipath scheme, demanding a caste census, and asking questions about unemployment. The BJP and the government will need to address these challenges.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. The views expressed are personal
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