Win sketches contours of future election plans

The victory has offered pathways for the party to think about its revival plans; it has, in no way, reversed the course of its declining fortunes.

In the last decade, counting days have rarely brought cheer to the Congress camp. That changed on Saturday with the party’s biggest win in the state since 1989. What led to this impressive victory? It was evident during the campaign that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was facing severe anti-incumbency. The state government’s performance was considered subpar, with allegations of corruption at the highest level, and little to claim on the governance front. With its tallest leader BS Yediyurappa not in contention for the chief minister (CM)’s post, the incumbent Basavaraj Bommai seemed a poor match for the Congress’s front-line leadership, especially former CM Siddaramaiah.

What explains the consolidation of the bottom half of society — in caste and class terms — behind the Congress? (Reuters File Photo)

While the BJP’s overall vote share may indicate that it retained its 2018 base, there is a marked shift in the composition — geographically and socially. The party has suffered losses across the state — most notably in its traditional stronghold of Bombay-Karnataka. Nonetheless, the party has made noticeable gains in votes in southern Karnataka, especially in the Old Mysuru region. The BJP can take solace in the fact that the losses are not huge, despite massive anti-incumbency and the purging of the old leadership. A new BJP in the state might be getting created from the ashes of its 2023 defeat.

The Congress, on the other hand, made significant gains. It completely decimated other parties in Bombay-Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka, and the Old Mysuru region. The shrinking of the Janata Dal (Secular), or JD(S), in Old Mysuru created favourable conditions for the Congress to convert seats at a much higher rate.

The Congress also benefited from a consolidation of certain social groups in its favour — especially the lower socio-economic strata. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll survey indicated that the Congress, in comparison with its 2018 social base, gained approximately 10 percentage points among Dalits and Muslims, and around five percentage points among the Kurubas, Scheduled Tribes, and Vokkaligas. Similarly, in socioeconomic terms, the Congress’s lead over the BJP among the poorer sections was in double digits.

It is among the urban upper middle classes (which comprise less than 10% of the electorate) that the BJP had a slight advantage over the Congress. Young voters also supported the Congress in larger numbers — its vote share among the voters below 35 is approximately eight percentage points higher in comparison with the party’s vote share among voters above 50. The Congress also had substantial advantage among women voters.

What explains the consolidation of the bottom half of society — in caste and class terms — behind the Congress?

This change in voting patterns suggests that the Congress may have succeeded in reviving its Ahinda social coalition of backward classes, Dalits, and Muslims created by Devaraj Urs in the 1970s. A combination of economic anxieties fuelled by a rise in prices of essential commodities along with the poll promises that the Congress made may have helped the party make massive gains among the economically marginalised. The Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll survey conducted a few weeks before voting day indicated that unemployment, poverty, and price rise were among the key issues for voters.

What are the implications of the Karnataka verdict for national politics? The Lok Sabha elections are still almost a year away, but four crucial assembly elections are scheduled later this year — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana.

First, the biggest lesson for the Congress from Karnataka should be to keep the state-level leadership united during the campaign. There may be no love lost between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, yet both leaders refrained from taking potshots at each other during the campaign. They even made efforts to appear together in rallies and social media forums to make sure that the rank and file rallies behind the party candidates. The Congress faces similar leadership tussles in two poll-bound states, and the challenge would be to keep dissidence under wraps so it does not adversely affect the party’s campaign platform and candidate nomination.

Second, while the Congress has a slightly easier time as a challenger playing the narrative of economic anxiety and highlighting the failures of the incumbent BJP government in the state, it must not forget that the BJP can very well turn this narrative on its head in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan later this year. The Congress can only reap the advantages as the incumbents in these states, if they have delivered on the promises made.

Third, the party’s impressive success in Karnataka underlines the importance of keeping assembly elections focused on local issues and state-level leadership. The crucial question for the Congress is if this model can be scaled up during the national elections. While it is not easy — the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi will leave no stone unturned to make Lok Sabha elections national in character — the Congress, along with its allies, have to craft a campaign narrative in which the elections become a state-by-state contest. This is not unimaginable, with the 2004 Lok Sabha elections being an example. However, the systemic features of political competition since 2014 pose significant hurdles to any such attempt.

Nonetheless, convincingly winning Karnataka is a huge morale booster for the Congress. It is their first major state victory after the Bharat Jodo Yatra. It will help the party on multiple fronts — shaping the campaign narrative at least till the next round of assembly elections, increased bargaining power vis-à-vis potential allies, and crucial financial resources that will go a long way in supporting its national campaign.

However, the party must also remain cautious in over-interpreting the Karnataka mandate. The victory has created conditions and offered pathways for the party to think about its revival plans; it has, in no way, reversed the course of the party’s declining fortunes.

Rahul Verma is with the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi

The views expressed are personal