Yemen rebels bring Gaza to the Red Sea
Indo-Pacific States must act to safeguard their commercial interests, but in ways that are consistent with political principles
The Red Sea is on fire. Literally. A slew of militia attacks on civilian ships in the waters off Yemen has sent a surge of panic across global capitals with rising concern that the world economy could be irreparably affected. Earlier this week, the Houthis, a Yemen-based and Iranian-backed militant group carried out its 12th attack on a commercial ship in four weeks, acting on a promise to assault every commercial vessel with links to Israel. Shaken by the attacks, 10 of the top global shipping companies, including Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, CMA CGM, and MSC, have suspended their services in the Red Sea. More are promising to follow suit.
The Red Sea, it merits mentioning, is no ordinary sea. It is the vital link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea that facilitates maritime trade between Europe, Asia, West Asia, and Africa. The Bab al-Mandab, at the mouth of the Red Sea, provides access to the Suez Canal, a trading conduit second only to the Malacca Strait. An estimated 15% of global trade by volume and 30% of the world's container traffic flows through the region. The rerouting of commercial ships to avoid the Red Sea entails a trip around the African continent, which adds significant time and cost to the voyages. Trade analysts say it could sharply raise oil prices by as much as $4, dealing a potential blow to the global economy.
Not unexpectedly, the United States (US) has moved to act. With Houthi attacks growing in frequency and intensity, Washington recently announced Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect civilian shipping in the Red Sea. It has the support of the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain. The coalition must deal with both the audacity and unpredictability of Houthi attacks and the radical tactics adopted by the militants. Instead of the usual boarding and hijacking routine that pirates usually follow, the Iran-backed militia is resorting to drone and missile attacks on the ships. This week, an oil tanker off Yemen was attacked by an armed drone and ballistic missile, even as another cargo ship reported an explosive detonating in the water. This promises to be a qualitatively different experience for maritime forces from anti-piracy operations off Somalia more than a decade ago.
Even so, the emerging scenario in the Red Sea gives many regional States pause. India, for one, faces a peculiar predicament. Despite deploying two warships in the Gulf of Aden, it has refrained from joining the US-led coalition. Indian decision-makers acknowledge the impact of the crisis on the global economy but feel compelled to avoid participation in a military endeavour meant to fight a political-backed group in control of vast parts of Yemen that bestrides the southern Red Sea. If this had been a matter of acting against pirates or escorting civilian shipping through a troubled hotspot, India would certainly have participated, more so because the country is a member of the US-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF). But the US-led operation potentially involves active combat against the Houthis, who are militarily no pushovers.
Aside from the political ramifications of an ostensible military alliance with the US, it appears Indian decision-makers are discouraged by the lack of consensus among regional States over the supposed nature of the US-led military operation in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, partners with India in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, have declined participation. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are themselves divided over how to fight the Houthis, with the former preferring a soft approach and the other in favour of a hardline stance. The lack of agreement among Arab States (only Bahrain has joined the CMF coalition) means the US-led military operation may be prolonged there, with no easy resolution on the cards. Given these circumstances, India has chosen to stay out.
Of course, this does not mean India has absolved itself of any involvement in naval operations in the region. Last week, the INS Kochi monitored and pursued the MV Ruen, a merchant vessel hijacked by pirates in Somalia, potentially in collaboration with the Houthis. The Indian warship pursued the vessel, and even rescued a Bulgarian sailor injured during the hijacking of the cargo vessel. India’s naval presence in the Gulf of Aden is expected to continue but Indian vessels may stay away from the fighting in and around the Red Sea. Despite declining maritime traffic in the region, the Indian Navy (IN) is expected to tighten monitoring to ensure that India-bound commercial vessels are not targeted by pirates.
For their part, Indian policymakers acknowledge the importance of dealing decisively with the Houthi challenge in the Red Sea. They recognise that India’s membership in the Bahrain-based CMF creates an expectation among India’s Euro-Atlantic partners that the IN will assist in a military operation to protect a crucial sea line of communication (SLOC). Many of India’s allies are likely to consider it as a litmus test of the country’s commitment to regional security. However, New Delhi is wary of participating since it could portray India as siding with Israel, whose actions in Gaza have recently drawn widespread international criticism. Many countries, including India, voted in favour of a UN General Assembly resolution last week calling for an urgent humanitarian ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war. If New Delhi is hesitant to intervene militarily against the Houthis, it is not because their actions are unworthy of a firm response, but rather because their political demand of restoring humanitarian aid to Gaza is, in theory, unobjectionable.
That is, in fact, a conundrum for many other Indo-Pacific States that have refrained from joining the US-led coalition. They must act to safeguard their commercial interests, but in ways that are consistent with political principles. Political considerations, as often happens, trump the imperatives of geo-economics.
Abhijit Singh is head of the maritime policy initiative at the ORF, New Delhi. The views expressed are personal
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