Chinese netizens wonder if their economy is in “garbage time”
As the government tries to stimulate growth, some gloomily ponder the long term
These have been heady times for players of China’s stockmarkets. After the government began ramping up measures in late September to inject new life into a flagging economy, share prices soared, before settling back a bit as investors waited for details. Senior legislators are poised to reveal more stimulus measures on November 8th. But public anxiety about the economy’s long-term prospects may prove hard to dispel. That was true even before Donald Trump, who is threatening massive tariffs on Chinese goods, became America’s president-elect.
Debate on Chinese social media offers clues to the way that at least some people are pondering the future. As always, given heavy censorship of China’s internet, discussions are cautious, using nudges and winks to convey grievances that might upset the Communist Party. The economy is high on the long list of topics that net nannies monitor closely. They are keen to stamp out gloom.
For those inclined to pessimism, the awarding on October 14th of the Nobel prize in economics to three academics at American universities—Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson—provided an opportunity to air it. Messrs Acemoglu and Robinson were already known in China for their book “Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty”. Three years after the English version was published in 2012, a translation was launched in China. It caused a stir.
The book argues that countries’ long-term economic success depends mainly on the nature of their social and political institutions, rather than culture, climate or geography. Those with institutions that are “inclusive”—that is, work in the interests of diverse groups rather than a narrow elite—are better at ensuring sustained growth than ones that are “extractive”, it posits. The authors say China’s economic institutions have become more inclusive since the era of Mao Zedong. This has enabled China’s astonishing economic expansion in recent decades. But they say China’s political institutions remain extractive, making it “likely to run out of steam”.
It is remarkable that such an argument can be aired in China, especially under Xi Jinping, who took power soon after the book was published in English and swiftly moved to silence the type of liberals who would be its natural fans. The Chinese version omits much of the authors’ argument about China, especially parts that are critical of its political system. Mr Acemoglu says he and his co-author felt “it was still worth trying to reach the Chinese audience in this form” even though it was a “very painful episode”. Readers could still deduce their point. And striking elements remained, for example that “authoritarian growth is neither desirable nor viable in the long run, and thus should not receive the endorsement of the international community as a template for nations in Latin America, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa”. Mr Xi would beg to differ.
Since the Nobel prize was awarded, there has been renewed interest in the work, with some Chinese netizens recommending it (and nationalists attacking it). “There is uncertainty in China’s future,” posted one user of Weibo, a social-media platform. “If it does not further reform, improve its inclusive economic system and establish an inclusive political system, China’s rapid development will be unsustainable. Re-reading this now is truly eye-opening.” He attached a glowing review of the book written in 2015 by Wu Jinglian, one of China’s most famous economists.
Such sentiment is reflected in an idea that began spreading online last year: that China has entered the “garbage time of history”. It refers to an American sports term used to describe low-quality play at the end of a match when competitors run out the clock because the result is already clear. Chinese netizens adopted it to express their feeling that China is stagnating. In July state media assailed the term. On Guancha, a nationalist website, an academic accused its users of “attempting to create public expectations that the nation will inevitably fail”. As China unleashes its stimulus package, expect no let-up in the government’s attacks on grumblers.
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