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The West is making a muddle of its Syria sanctions

The Economist
Jan 21, 2025 08:00 AM IST

Outsiders should be much clearer about how and when they will be lifted

FOR many Syrians, the past month has been bewildering. They have watched one Western envoy after another rush to Damascus to celebrate the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the longtime dictator deposed in December. Yet as they depart, those same envoys insist it is far too early to ease the web of sanctions on Syria’s economy. America and Europe seem eager to meet Syria’s new rulers, but not to help them.

People celebrated at Umayyad Square in Damascus on December 8, 2024. Islamist-led rebels declared that they have taken Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria.(AFP) PREMIUM
People celebrated at Umayyad Square in Damascus on December 8, 2024. Islamist-led rebels declared that they have taken Damascus in a lightning offensive on December 8, sending President Bashar al-Assad fleeing and ending five decades of Baath rule in Syria.(AFP)

On January 6th America’s Treasury Department announced a small but welcome change. It issued a licence that allows companies to do business with the new Syrian government and to provide the country with electricity and fuel. The licence, valid for six months, does not remove any sanctions. Still, it should allow more humanitarian aid to reach the country. It seems to have had immediate effects.

A day after the Treasury announcement, a Syrian official said that Qatar and Turkey would send floating power plants to the Syrian coast. The barges are expected to generate 800 megawatts, which would boost Syria’s electricity output by 50%, welcome relief in a country where the state provides fewer than four hours of power a day. Gulf states are also in talks to finance a 400% rise in public-sector pay, an early promise of the interim government—but one it cannot afford without help.

This is a good start, but if Syria is to recover from a decade of civil war, it will need more than piecemeal exemptions. So far, though, that is all that many Western policymakers seem prepared to offer.

America’s sanctions on Syria date back to 1979, when it labelled the country a state sponsor of terrorism. In the subsequent decades it added a heap of other measures to punish the Assad regime for sending jihadists to Iraq, meddling in Lebanon’s politics and massacring countless Syrians. Some of those restrictions ought to remain in place: Mr Assad and his cronies should stay pariahs indefinitely. It is harder to argue that the whole country should, too.

Proponents of a take-it-slow approach believe that America and Europe should use sanctions as leverage to push for an inclusive government in Syria. Lifting them would not forfeit that leverage, though: they can always be reimposed. And while inclusion is a laudable goal, it is a squishy one. Mr Assad often appointed women and religious minorities to his cabinet. He also gassed his own people. If Western policymakers want the new government to be inclusive, they will need to spell out exactly what that means.

One American diplomat offers a procedural argument: Joe Biden has just days left in office, and weighty decisions about Syria should be left to his successor. But Donald Trump will need time to nominate officials and get them confirmed by the Senate—and Syria may not be a priority. It could take months for America to deliver meaningful relief.

Europe may move faster. On January 3rd the French and German foreign ministers met Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria’s de facto ruler, in Damascus. Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, said it was premature to lift sanctions. In private, though, German diplomats are circulating a proposal which would do just that.

The eu would probably start by dismantling sanctions on a few key sectors, such as Syrian banks and the national airline. Reconnecting banks could make it easier for Syrians in Europe to send remittances, a lifeline for many inside the country. The bloc is expected to discuss the German proposal at a meeting of foreign ministers later this month.

There will be a separate debate around Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist rebel group which led the offensive that toppled Mr Assad. America, Britain and the eu all label it a terrorist organisation, as does the United Nations. Some of these prohibitions date back more than a decade, to a time when hts was still known as Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria. It has since ditched the jihadists and moderated its views.

But unwinding the sanctions will be tricky. The secretary of state could revoke America’s designation, but that is politically fraught. The EU’s 27 members would all have to agree. Delisting the group at the UN could take more than a year. Even if HTS dissolves itself, as Mr Sharaa has promised to do, lifting sanctions on it will not be straightforward.

Western governments should make all this a priority. A six-month exemption might allow donors to send power barges, but investors will need stronger assurances before they promise to build new power plants. If sanctions remain in place, Syria could remain a charity case.

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