Pennsylvania's mail ballot rules could lead to provisional ballot crisis on election day

With 390,000 ballots outstanding, many voters may vote in person. Provisional ballots could benefit Democrats if mail ballots are rejected.

Pennsylvania's mail ballot rules may create a provisional ballot crisis on November 5 election day. Recent legal clarifications state that mail ballots can be rejected if voters fail to date the accompanying affidavits correctly. With around 390,000 mail ballots still outstanding and a deadline of 8 p.m. for receipt, many voters may have to vote in person to ensure their voices are heard. However, voters encountering issues with their mail ballots can opt for provisional ballots on Election Day.

Former US President Donald Trump during his closing campaign event at Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids, Michigan, US, (Bloomberg)

Provisional ballots expected to surge in Pennsylvania

According to NBC, 2.2 million Pennsylvanians have had approved mail ballot applications, based on public data from the state secretary of state. So far, about 82% of these voters have returned their mail ballots, leaving behind 390,000. Pa is one of the most important swing states where both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in a neck-to-neck race. However, according to the reports, “those provisional ballots may favor Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party.”

Those who present their mail ballots can swap them for regular ballots, while those who don't will use provisional ballots, which will only be counted after verifying that the mail ballots were not processed. The outlet suggests, If the trends from Pennsylvania's 2022 election continue into 2024, around 150,000 more mail ballots are anticipated to be counted via mail or drop boxes.

In 2022, roughly one-third of voters who requested mail ballots but did not return them cast their votes in person. This means that roughly 90,000 people might choose to do it this time around, with about 35,000 probably going for provisional ballots.

Pennsylvania's provisional ballots count approved by Supreme Court

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Supreme Court dismissed an emergency appeal from Republicans that could have resulted in thousands of provisional ballots going uncounted in Pennsylvania. The Supreme Court agreed with a decision from the state's highest court that requires election officials to tally the ballots from people whose mail-in ballots got turned down.

This is a big win for people who fight for voting rights. They wanted to let voters still use provisional ballots on Election Day if their mail-in ballots got rejected because of small mistakes. Even though this was a blow for Republicans, they said they won when Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court threw out attempts to count mail-in ballots without a clear handwritten date on the envelope for the next presidential election.