Women give Kamala Harris slight edge over Donald Trump in new poll as they head into first presidential debate

Kamala Harris excels with women, Black voters, and nonbinary individuals, while Donald Trump leads among men and Latino voters.

A new 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris holding a three-point lead over former US President Donald Trump as they prepare for their first presidential debate. The poll, which includes responses from 18,123 registered voters, reveals that 44% back Harris, while 41% support Trump, and 10% remain undecided.

Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP)

Harris leads among women voters by 13 points, with 48% supporting her compared to 35% for Trump. Trump holds an eight-point lead among men, with 47% backing him versus Harris' 39%. Nonbinary voters overwhelmingly support Harris, giving her an 83% to 7% advantage over Trump.

Among racial groups, Harris leads among Black women by 59 points and Black men by 30 points. She also holds a 16-point advantage among Latinas, while Latino men back Trump by seven points. Harris also leads among Asian American Pacific Islander (AAPI) women by 11 points, while AAPI men slightly favour Trump by two points.

Marital status also continues to shape voter preferences, with married men backing Trump by 12 points, while married women narrowly support Harris. Single women favour Harris by a wide margin, while parents, especially fathers, support Trump by a significant 26-point margin.

Key issues in the Harris-Trump poll include inflation

Inflation is the top concern for 38% of registered voters. Nearly half of independent voters cite inflation or the cost of living as their primary concern. Men are more likely to prioritize immigration (12%) and jobs (10%), while women emphasize health care and abortion (11% each).

Harris, who has centred her campaign around economic and social issues, is taking a policy-driven approach, with a focus on delivering speeches and participating in specific campaign events. Trump, while maintaining a lighter campaign schedule, has conducted interviews and relied on his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, to engage voters.

Harris also leads in voter enthusiasm, with 92% of her supporters saying they are excited to vote for her, compared to 87% of Trump’s supporters. The enthusiasm is particularly strong among Black and AAPI women, who show increased excitement when asked about the potential for Harris to become the first woman president.